Are you a little confused about what’s happening with the Mets and the Braves this afternoon? Allow me to explain.
The two teams are currently tied in the National League Wild Card race with a record of 88-72. The clubs were set to square-off for what seemed like a very definitive three-game set last week, yet nasty weather in Atlanta postponed two of those contests. Now, both games will be played today as a doubleheader, with the 89-73 Diamondbacks waiting the in the wings. If the Braves win twice on Monday, they’re in. If the Mets win twice on Monday, they’re in. If the teams split? They’re both in, with Arizona the odd club out.
As such, Atlanta and New York have only announced starters for Game 1, which complicates the day’s full events from a betting perspective. However, you know we’re going to find a way to wager on this baseball in some capacity. Here’s my best bet for Monday’s unique slate.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Under 7.5 (-108)
While both teams are saving their best pitching option for a potential do-or-die Game 2 — that being Chris Sale and Luis Severino, respectively — we still get a very good duel on the mound for Game 1. Tylor Megill will toe the rubber for the Mets. Rookie sensation Spencer Schwellenbach will get the pill for the Braves. In most cases this goes without saying, but it can not be stressed enough how much each of these clubs wants to win this first contest, thus saving their ace and bullpen for Game 1 of the Wild Card round on Tuesday. I expect both managers will have all of their top relievers at their disposal in this scenario, creating an environment where late-game scoring opportunities should be at a premium.
Early-game scoring opportunities won’t be easy, either. Most organizations would be excited to have Schwellenbach pitching Game 1 of a playoff series, let alone Game 1 of an odd clinching doubleheader. The 24-year-old may not have a lot of MLB experience under his belt, yet he’s pitched to a 2.59 ERA and a 3.01 FIP across his last 11 outings — a span of 66.0 innings. Megill’s on quite the run, as well. Pitching in the midst of a pressure-packed postseason chase, Megill’s registered a 1.78 ERA and a 2.02 FIP over his last five starts. In fact, since August 30, among pitchers who have thrown at least 25 innings, that FIP is the third-lowest mark in all of baseball. “Clutch” is a word that gets tossed around a lot in sports, but it would certainly apply to the RHP’s recent performance.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
