Washington and Michigan both rolled into the National Title Game last season with 14-0 records. The Wolverines’ rushing attack and defense proved to be too much for the Huskies. While the main characters have some turnover, now we get a rematch of last year’s Natty on Saturday night in Seattle. Will we see Washington get some revenge?
Michigan Wolverines at Washington Huskies
WAS +1.5 (-110) 2-units
Saturday (7:30pm ET)
Once numbers came out for Week 6, I posted this play to Twitter. Washington touched as high as -3 on Sunday, but sits -2.5 on the spread and -142 on the moneyline as of Monday afternoon — both prices I am good with playing.
This game wasn’t really on my radar leading up to the season, or even through the first couple weeks of the season. But given what we’ve seen from these two teams so far, I think it’s setting up as a really nice spot for the Huskies at home — and the line move off the open seems to agree.
Let’s start with the obvious revenge angle before getting into how these teams actually matchup. The “revenge” aspect of this might get a little overblown. This is going to be a completely different game than last season. Jim Harbaugh is the coach of the Chargers. Kalen DeBoer is the coach of Alabama. J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. were top-10 picks in the NFL Draft, and several of their teammates joined them in the NFL.
That said, even under new Head Coaches, both teams do return some key starters and contributors from that game to these 2024 teams. I like the fact that Washington gets this game at home after losing in the Natty. While the players and coaches have some turnover, the fanbase remains the same. Husky fans remember how last season ended, and I do expect them to create a strong home field advantage on Saturday night.
Michigan is a team I faded in the offseason. I played the Wolverines to miss the College Football Playoff and also took Alabama over Michigan in head-to-head wins. I’m sticking with my handicap on them not being all that good, and I think we see that play out this week in a hostile road environment. If we look at what Michigan has done thus far, the Wolverines scraped past Fresno State and Arkansas State, and got dominated in their own building by Texas. Frankly, the Wolverines might have been fortunate to get past both USC and Minnesota at home as well.
Now, off those two narrow victories, Michigan has to go out west to play its first road game of the season. A few weeks ago, Washington responded well to a bad loss to Washington State in the Apple Cup, hammering Northwestern 24-5 the following week. This time around, the Huskies are off a bad loss on Friday night at Rutgers. Washington thoroughly outplayed Rutgers in the game, averaging about eight yards per play and out gaining its opponent by nearly 200 yards. After three missed field goals and a failed fourth and goal at the goal line, the Huskies still managed to lose by just three points.
All situational spots point to backing Washington here, including the historic trend of backing an unranked home favorite over a ranked team catching the points. The numbers on the field also show that Washington should move the ball in this game. The Huskies are a solid running team, ranking 50th in the nation at just under 170 yards per game. While I expect them to run the ball some after going for 207 yards on the ground at Rutgers, it does play into Michigan’s strength. The Wolverines rank sixth in the country, allowing just 68.8 rushing yards per game.
However, Washington does feature a pretty solid passing attack, ranking 17th in the nation at over 300 yards per game. That’s where I expect the Huskies to have their advantage, as Michigan has the 90th-ranked passing defense, giving up just shy of 250 yards per game. If Washington does find that success through the air, expect it to open some things up on the ground as the game goes on.
On the flip side, not only is Michigan going to have to take a shaky secondary on the road and stop a strong Washington passing game, but it’s also going to have to find a way to move the ball. The Wolverines average the sixth-fewest passing yards in the country at 115.4. But to go a step further, since Alex Orji took over at quarterback the last two games, he has totaled 118 passing yards on 17-of-30 attempts. And those were in home games against USC and Michigan, now the Wolverines go on the road against a Washington defense allowing just 135.5 passing yards per game. That’s good for seventh in the country, and the numbers are even stronger at home.
That leaves Michigan’s only hope to dominate this game on the ground. It was able to find enough success to just barely get by against USC and Minnesota, but those are both below average run defenses. Washington ranks 34th in rushing yards allowed this season. If the Huskies can bottle up the run at all, specifically stopping big plays, it’s tough to imagine Michigan finding a way to get points on the board. The probably becomes particularly concerning if Washington can build a lead passing the ball early.
Outside of an elite Texas team, this should be Michigan’s toughest test to date. The matchup does not favor the Wolverines, and the rowdy atmosphere in Seattle should only complicate things. Huskies roll in this one and get their revenge for January.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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