Fear not! This is not as bad a roster dilemma as you may think for season-long. And it’s a legitimately prudent question if you’re looking to build a DraftKings DFS lineups for a primetime contest tonight like NFL $60K Post Pattern [$15K to 1st] (Primetime).
We know Derrick Henry ($6,800) is going to get the volume, the goal-line touches, etc. Justice Hill’s ($4,800) work, for the most part, will come between the twenties, and in drive-specific situations that call for yards.
Don’t let that scare you away from starting him tonight, though.
In 2023, Hill ranked 20th among all skill players in explosive play rate (defined as runs of ten-or-more yards). On those plays last year,
Until Keaton Mitchell gets back, Hill is Lamar Jackson’s ($7,500) guy through the air out of the backfield. That’s incredibly valuable. So valuable, in fact, that we can measure it: Hill has an expected team points added per target (EPA/tgt) of 0.2. That ranks eleventh in the league among running backs with at least five targets.
For the record, I wrote about Hill’s receiving opportunity metrics ahead of Week 3, and he ranked thirteenth in the league in the same above stat with the same parameters. His performance in last week’s game doubled his EPA/tgt. It was 0.09 as recently as ten days ago.
Buffalo’s pass rush is well above league-average. Tonight’s game script might shoehorn Lamar Jackson into checking down more often than he’d like. Think back to Week 1’s primetime game against the Chiefs. Jackson was throwing to Hill and Isaiah Likely ($4,300) behind the line of scrimmage at quite a clip.
I quite like Hill’s chances to return great value tonight at a $4,800 price. Explosive players are eventually going to break one off for a touchdown. I like Hill for a good shot at paydirt tonight.
Verdict: Start him.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $60K Post Pattern [$15K to 1st] (Primetime).
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
