The Sunday football slate will conclude with one of the more highly-anticipated games of the season thus far. The Buffalo Bills will travel down to Baltimore to face off with the Ravens. Each of these teams is regarded as one of the biggest threats to knock off the Chiefs in the AFC, but they will first have to sort out who packs the heavier punch out of the two of them.
Buffalo enters with a 3-0 record. So far, they’ve defeated their opponents by a combined margin of 112-48. They will now face their toughest test of the season against the Ravens. Baltimore is just 1-2 after losing the opening two games to the Chiefs and Raiders. Baltimore has hit their desperation point earlier than they expected. They look to carry the momentum of last week’s win into this game.
The Ravens enter the matchup as 2.5-point favorites on the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook. Buffalo is +114 on the moneyline, while the game total sits at 46.5 points.
While there are plenty of breakdowns for sharper plays, start and sit breakdowns, and DFS picks, this article will take a look at some more longshot plays. These types of big swings come with high risk, these types of big swings can save your Sunday or at least allow you to have a little extra fun during the primetime matchup. Several of these plays come from the DK Specials section which you can find here.
Lamar Jackson & Josh Allen to Combine for 150+ Rush Yards (+450)
Both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen crack the list of best dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL. Both quarterbacks ranked in the top-43 in rushing yards last season across all players. Allen finished last year with 524 rushing yards, while Jackson ranked 22nd among all rushers with 821 rushing yards last year.
Through the opening three weeks of the season, Jackson has already tallied 254 rushing yards including 122 yards on the ground in the opening week. Allen has been quieter to start the season, recording just 85 total yards on the season on 17 total carries.
Heading into Week 4, give both quarterbacks a chance to use their legs. Baltimore has had the best-rushing defense in the NFL through the opening three weeks, which could cause some issues for the traditional running game. Allen is at his best as a runner when scrambling and ad-libbing plays. He has averaged as many as 52.6 rushing yards per game in his career and will have less responsibility than Jackson in reaching this 150-yard total. With both quarterbacks having big play potential with their legs, the +450 payout is an intriguing play.
Josh Allen to reach 25+ Rush Yards in Each Half (+400)
The sample size is still too small to declare if the Bills’ offense has reduced the opportunity for Allen to use his legs or if he just has not broken out in this category yet. Allen has used his running ability to bail out the Bills’ offense plenty in past years and tonight’s game script could open the door for this to occur once again.
Looking at the Ravens’ defense, it is night and day for where the production has been. Through the opening three weeks, Baltimore has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL. In contrast, they rank dead last in passing defense having allowed 875 yards through the air. These numbers are somewhat distorted as the Ravens have had just 53 rush attempts compared to 117 pass attempts so expect this to settle out some over time.
If Allen is going to reach this total it is likely going to be on scramble opportunities. Expect Allen to open up things with his legs a bit more in Week 4 and he can go for 25+ yards on any given attempt. This is another big swing, but Allen is capable of the spectacular. Look for him to lean on his legs more this week than has been the case thus far and have at least one significant scramble attempt in each half.
Derrick Henry 100+ Rushing Yards (+360)
Derrick Henry was the prized addition of the offseason this year and provides the Ravens with a new element to their offense. The four-time Pro Bowl RB got off to a bit of a slow start tallying just 130 yards through the opening two weeks. Henry broke free last week recording 151 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his 25 carries.
Heading into this week, Henry’s player prop total sits at 68.5 rushing yards with the over-favored at -120 odds. He will face off with a Bills team that has allowed 355 rushing yards through the first three weeks which ranks 16th in the NFL. Henry will be the most talented running back they have faced. De’Von Achane managed to record 96 yards against Buffalo.
Look for the Ravens to show a commitment to the running game and to put the ball in Henry’s hands often. It is not a coincidence that the Ravens’ first win came in his most productive game, as the team can build out plenty of their offense from the threat of the run. Expect Baltimore to commit to Henry early and for him to have a chance to replicate last week’s performance.
Derrick Henry & Lamar Jackson to Combine for 200+ Rush Yards (+600)
While Henry will lead the charge in the rush attack, Lamar Jackson possesses the big play potential it will take to reach 200 rushing yards. Jackson has eclipsed 100 yards on his own 14 times in his career and once already this season. Henry has run for over 100 yards 39 times already in his career and is coming off his first game reaching this number with the Ravens last week.
Oftentimes a rushing quarterback and the primary running back eat into each other’s production, but this is not quite the case for the Ravens. Henry’s physical style of running wears on a team throughout the matchup and Jackson is contrasted with his blazing speed and elusiveness. The effect of this is felt throughout a matchup and these lengthy gashes tend to occur later in the game.
There will be games this season in which both Ravens stars are fully clicking and eclipse 200 rushing yards combined. The primetime matchup with the Bills is a great chance to put this on display. The +600 odds are worth a big swing although the game script will play a role in how likely this is for the Ravens.
Zay Flowers & Khalil Shakir to Combine for 200+ Receiving Yards (+1000)
They might not be the household names that some other team’s wide receiver rooms hold, but there is talent on both of these rosters.
Zay Flowers will headline things for the Ravens. The second-year wideout has impressed early on recording 16 receptions for 148 yards and a touchdown. He had his best performance in Week 2 in which he tallied seven receptions on 11 targets for 91 yards. Flowers has continued to climb up the pecking order in the Ravens’ offense and his 25 targets lead all pass-catchers with Isaiah Likely next with 16.
For Buffalo, there was some concern coming into the season following the loss of Stefon Diggs and the most unproven wide receiver room of Allen’s career. Khalil Shakir has stepped up in a major way for the Bills to start the year. The third-year pass-catcher leads all players on the roster with 14 targets. He has hauled in all 14 of these passes and taken them for 168 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
It will take a big play and long reception from one or both of these wide receivers if they are to reach this number. For reference, Flowers’ receiving over/under sits at 52.5 receiving yards while Shakir’s number is just 48.5 yards. This is the highest risk play on here, but the +1000 payout holds some intrigue. If a big play is to occur through the air for either team, these pass-catchers should have the inside track in being a part of it.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
