The Sunday football slate will conclude with one of the more highly-anticipated games of the season thus far. The Buffalo Bills will travel down to Baltimore to face off with the Ravens. Each of these teams is regarded as one of the biggest threats to knock off the Chiefs in the AFC, but they will first have to sort out who packs the heavier punch out of the two of them.
Buffalo enters with a 3-0 record in which they have defeated their opponents by a combined margin of 112-48. They will now face their toughest test of the season against the Ravens. While they entered the season with plenty of expectation, Baltimore is just 1-2 after losing the opening two games to the Chiefs and Raiders. Baltimore hit their desperation point earlier than expected and will look to carry the momentum of last week’s win into this game.
The Ravens enter the matchup as 2.5-point favorites on the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook. Buffalo is +114 on the moneyline while the game total sits at 46.5 points. Here are four player props I like for the expected primetime thriller.
Derrick Henry Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
One of the primary reasons expectations are different for the Ravens this year is the addition of Derrick Henry. The four-time Pro Bowl running back has been the lifeblood of the Titans’ offense for the past eight years and took his talents to Baltimore this offseason for a chance to join a true Super Bowl threat.
Henry did not get off to his desired start tallying 130 yards of rushing throughout the first two games. He broke free last week for 151 rushing yards, 23 receiving yards, and a pair of touchdowns. His contrasting rushing style with Lamar Jackson showed what it can produce and both Henry and the Ravens will look to build off this.
The 30-year-old has eclipsed 68.5 rushing yards in two of the first three games with the Ravens thus far. He also reached this number in nine of the 17 games last year and in 12 of the 16 games in 2022. Baltimore has found its identity as a run-first team and will look to establish this early against the Bills. Buffalo ranks 16th in run defense to start this year and has allowed 68 or more yards to a running back in two of the first three games. Expect Henry to make his presence felt early and to record over 68.5 yards on the ground.
Josh Allen Anytime TD (+130)
With his 6-foot-5 monstrous frame, Josh Allen oftentimes fills the role of the goal-line back for the Bills. The 28-year-old tallied 15 rushing touchdowns last year, which trailed only Raheem Mostert for the most in the NFL. He tallied two rushing touchdowns in the opening game of this season but was held out of the end zone the past two weeks.
Look for this to change against the Ravens and for Allen to rely on his legs once again. Baltimore allowed two rushing touchdowns in the opening week, and one in each of the past two weeks. Dak Prescott was able to get in the end zone on the ground last week and Allen is much more of a weapon with his legs.
Getting Allen’s anytime touchdown as +130 is great value and a prop you should eye weekly. Expect him to find pay dirt with his legs more weeks than he doesn’t and for this trend to pick up this week against the Ravens.
James Cook Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
While Allen remains more of the red zone threat, James Cook has been productive to start this year. Through the opening three weeks, he has tallied 188 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Cook has eclipsed 70 yards in two of the three matchups, even while being limited to just 11 carries in one of these games.
Baltimore has an impressive defense that is currently leading the NFL in rushing yards allowed. However, Cook will be the most talented running back they have faced so far this season, and the 54.5 line is well within his ability.
Expect the Bills to show a renewed commitment to the running game. Cook is capable of breaking off a long run with any touch. He has more than twice the carries of Ray Davis on the season and will continue to be viewed as RB1 for the Bills. Expect him to receive double-digit carries in the game, and convert this to more than 55 yards on the ground.
Justice Hill Over 30.5 Rush & Receiving Yards (-115)
While Derrick Henry has taken the reigns as the clear number-one running back for the Ravens, Justice Hill remains a key part of the offense. He is especially active in the passing game and will be on the field for most of the third-down situations.
Hill had seven touches for 55 yards in Week 1, six touches for 32 yards in Week 2, and seven touches for 54 yards last week. He has played in at least 41% of offensive snaps in all three games and was on the field for 54% of the snaps in two of the three weeks.
He will continue to be more of an under-the-radar name, but Justice Hill will be more relevant to the Ravens’ offense throughout the season than most expected. Count on Hill to eclipse 30.5 yards from scrimmage for the fourth consecutive game and the lines continue to catch up to his level of opportunity.
Derrick Henry & Lamar Jackson to Combined for 30+ Rush Attempts (+250)
My favorite bet on the slate has a surprising +250 payout. While Baltimore has grown in their passing game, ranking 10th in passing yards on the season, their identity is on the ground. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have complimentary styles of rushing that will be utilized heavily in this matchup and every Ravens game moving forward.
Looking at the past three games, Lamar Jackson has rushed the ball 35 total times. He was held to just five rush attempts in Week 2 but carried it 14 and 16 times in the other two games. Derrick Henry has tallied 56 carries so far this season and had at least 13 carries in each game. In their first win last week, Jackson & Henry combined for 39 rush attempts on the ground.
There have been more growing pains than expected for this backfield duo. But it is no coincidence that the team produced their first win in the game they were most active in. Look for Baltimore to establish their running game early in this matchup and for the duo to receive at least 30 opportunities on the ground in primetime.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
