Super Bowl hopefuls will face off in primetime when the Ravens host the undefeated Bills. Baltimore, 2.5-point favorites, picked up its first win of the season last week against the Cowboys, thanks in large part to 274 rushing yards.
Running back Derrick Henry ($6,800) has a good shot at scoring another touchdown (or two) in Sunday’s contest. The future Hall of Famer hasn’t lost a step since signing with the Ravens, scoring four touchdowns in just three weeks. In Dallas, the King put together a vintage performance with 151 rushing yards and two TDs.
An upgrade in offensive line play compared to last season with the Titans has been huge for the 30-year old back. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Baltimore’s 442 expected rush yards and 121 rush yards over expected are the third-best marks in football.
Buffalo’s run defense is a clear step up in competition, but it isn’t invincible. The Bills are giving up 0.08 EPA per carry, the sixth-worst mark in football (Next Gen Stats). With all eyes on the dynamic Lamar Jackson ($7,500), there should be plenty of gaps for Henry to bulldoze his way through.
In five career games against the Bills, Henry has scored seven touchdowns. Playing behind the best offense of his career, it’s no stretch to think he can hit pay-dirt one more time. However, playing Henry’s anytime touchdown at -175 doesn’t deliver the greatest odds.
Instead, consider playing Henry as a first touchdown scorer at +425. A high over/under of 46.5 hints at a potential barn-burner between Jackson and Josh Allen ($7,800). To keep the superstar quarterbacks off the field, expect both coaches to focus heavily on the run game in the first half.
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