The NFL season is off to the races with plenty of takeaways occurring through the first three weeks. This has especially been shown in the futures market as the NFL’s top players make their case for taking home some hardware.
One prestigious award that often flies under the radar is the Offensive Player of the Year award. Officially given to the NFL player “who is considered the top offensive player during the regular season,” the OPOY has become the most prestigious non-quarterback award. While QBs are not officially excluded from earning this trophy, typically the MVP race is reserved for the top passers.
Looking back on recent history, three of the past 10 winners were quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes took home the award in 2018, Matt Ryan in 2016, and Cam Newton in 2015. Christian McCaffrey took home the award last year and Justin Jefferson the year prior. A running back has won the award in four of the past 10 years, while a wide receiver has been honored in three of these seasons.
Looking at the 2024 OPOY race there already has been some significant line movement. Here are the latest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook as well as a case for a few of the top candidates:
Saquon Barkley (+350 odds)
While it isn’t the most lucrative payout, Saquon Barkley is the rightful favorite for this award and the number may only get shorter from here. The Philadelphia Eagles’ key offseason addition has proven his worth through the opening three weeks and has been the team’s MVP thus far.
Through the opening three weeks of the season, Barkley has tallied 404 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns. He is currently leading the NFL in rushing yards (351), rushing touchdowns (4), longest rushing touchdown (65 yards), yards per game (117.0), touches (73), and total touchdowns (5). Heading into a Week 4 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Eagles are set to be without DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. This opens the door for another impressive performance and a chance for Barkley to grab the pole position for the award moving forward.
It is worth jumping on Saquon Barkley’s odds now before this line loses all value. Jalen Hurts has not returned to the desired level of play to start this season and Philadelphia has been forced to rely on Barkley perhaps even more than expected. Barkley will be at the forefront of the Eagles’ production for the remainder of the season and has a chance to run away with this award. The former Giants star was crowned OPOY in 2018 and is looking to add another to his resume.
Justin Jefferson (+600 odds)
The Vikings star already took home an Offensive Player of the Year Award in 2022 and has a chance to add a second this season. Justin Jefferson is proving to be quarterback-proof and has had no trouble tallying his typical level of production regardless of who is throwing him the ball.
Through the opening three weeks of the season, Jefferson has tallied 14 receptions for 273 yards and three touchdowns. He has recorded the longest receiving touchdown of the season at 97 yards, and his three receiving touchdowns are tied for the most in the NFL. Jefferson also ranks seventh in the league in receiving yards. He has nearly three times the receiving yards as any other Vikings wide receiver and will continue to be the heartbeat of their offense.
One factor Jefferson has going in his favor is the Vikings’ potential to outperform expectations as a team. Minnesota entered the season with an over/under for season-long wins of just 6.5 and +300 odds to make the playoffs. Through the opening three weeks, they are 3-0 and have looked every bit of a playoff threat.
There is a gap between Jefferson and Barkley for now, but plenty of football left to be played. Jefferson has led the NFL in receiving yards once already in his career and if he can replicate this with the Vikings continuing to outperform expectations, he has a case for the OPOY.
CeeDee Lamb (+650 odds)
Shortly behind Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb also has a case for the most valuable offensive player. The Cowboys’ star put all his contract concerns to rest and signed an extension shortly before the season started. Lamb has been all business since the season started, tallying 20 receptions for 316 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Looking across the NFL, Lamb ranks third in receiving yards, seventh in receptions, and leads all players with 13.4 yards per touch. The Cowboys picked up their second victory of the season on Thursday Night over the Giants and sit at 2-2 on the year. Expectations are for Dallas to be firmly in the playoff hunt and it will take Lamb’s production to reach its lofty goals.
Lamb has about twice as many receiving yards as any other Cowboys’ wide receiver and will continue to be the primary option. If he can keep on track to his start and Dallas lives up to expectations, there could be a case for CeeDee Lamb.
Alvin Kamara (+2200 odds)
My favorite longshot for this award is Alvin Kamara. The Saints have been one of the bigger surprises to start this season with their 2-1 record and explosive offensive performances. Kamara has been at the heart of this and has been involved in both the rushing and passing game.
Through the opening three weeks, Kamara has tallied 285 rushing yards, an NFL-best four rushing touchdowns, 132 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. His 417 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns each lead the NFL.
While Derrick Carr and Chris Olave deserve their flowers as well, the spotlight is available for Alvin Kamara if his production and the team’s success are to continue. While Kamara is a five-time Pro Bowl running back, he is not quite the household name of the names ahead of him on this list. However, if he continues his level of production his resume will be indisputable.
The Verdict
The strong start to the season has paved the path for Saquon Barkley to have the inside track for his second Offensive Player of the Year Award. He has shown to be an even more vital part of the Eagles’ offense and will continue to be for the remainder of the season. Keep Kamara in mind as more of a longshot play, but DraftKings has the rightful player as the favorite as Week 4 gets set to kick off.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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