The Lions host the Seahawks in the second game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seahawks (+3.5) at Lions o/u 46
Seahawks Team Breakdown
It has been a more under-the-radar start than teams like the Bills, Chiefs and Vikings, but the Seahawks are 3-0 and playing amazing football. Their defense is 2nd in the NFL in EPA/play and Geno Smith is 9th amongst qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite. They are playing great on both sides of the ball and that has been without their star RB Kenneth Walker III. There is a chance Walker returns for this game on Monday night since he practiced on Friday. Zach Charbonnet has done pretty well filling in for Walker but Walker is a much better down-to-down back.
The Seahawks have a great secondary which is essential against the Lions. They are 2nd in the NFL in defensive EPA/dropback and 1st in defensive dropback success rate. They can completely take away the opponent’s passing game and force them to try to beat them in other ways. That also makes life much easier for Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense when they don’t need to try to play keep-up against opposing offenses.
Lions Team Breakdown
The Lions are off to a 2-1 start but some things look just a bit off compared to last season. The offense ranks 22nd in EPA/dropback and Jared Goff ranks 25th amongst qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite, which is squarely between Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix for context. Goff has simply not looked as sharp as he has been the last couple of seasons in Detroit. Whether it is a Goff issue or an offensive scheme issue, something just isn’t quite right on offense for the Lions so far.
Defensively, Detroit has been elite against the rush but not as good against the pass. The way the Seahawks have been playing, that is not exactly the formula you want. The Lions are 3rd in the NFL in EPA/rush allowed but 20th in EPA/dropback allowed. They will need to improve in the secondary to stop all of the weapons that the Seahawks have at their disposal.
Pick and Prediction
The Lions have yet to win a game convincingly. They went to overtime with the Rams, lost to the Bucs, then won a tight one against the Cardinals last week. The Seahawks are 3-0 but had played a couple of tight games as well, before blowing out the Dolphins last week. This should be another tight game as well because of the way these teams match up. The Seahawks want to throw to their great wide receivers and the Lions have been very vulnerable against the pass. The Seahawks’ defense has also been elite and Jared Goff has had some struggles early on in the season.
The Seahawks should be able to hang around in this game and have a chance to win late in the fourth quarter. Geno Smith is playing like the better quarterback so far this season and the Seahawks have the better defense. The Lions have been great at home over the last couple of seasons but the Seahawks should be able to hang with them the whole way so I will take the points with Seattle.
Best Bet: Seahawks +3.5
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