It has been the year of the underdog to start the 2024 NFL season. Through the opening three weeks, underdogs of six or more points are 12-1 ATS with eight straight-up wins. Underdogs of a touchdown or more are also a perfect 4-0 outright and the largest underdog in each of the first three weeks has secured the outright victory.
These trends tend to settle over time, but it is impossible not to take note of this. Don’t expect the script to flip completely and for there to continue to be unexpected results in the wild world of the NFL.
With the success of the underdogs in mind, here are three teams who may be worth taking a chance on the moneyline ahead of the NFL Week 4 slate.
Washington Commanders (+145 ML) over Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jayden Daniels has revitalized the Washington Commanders outlook after being selected with the second overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. The Heisman Trophy winner has provided the franchise with its best quarterback play in decades and is fresh off a performance in which he outdueled Joe Burrow on Monday night.
Daniels and the Commanders will now face off against the Arizona Cardinals, who enter with a 1-2 record to start the year. While Kyler Murray has impressed, there are some concerns with the Arizona defense. Through three weeks, it ranks 19th in points allowed, 17th in yards allowed, 22nd in first downs allowed and 20th in opponents score percentage. If the door is open for production, Daniels is extremely capable of walking right through it.
Looking at Washington’s numbers on the year, it ranks fifth in points scored, sixth in yards and has the best score percentage and offensive turnover rate of all teams in the league. If Washington can take an early lead and control the game, it will be difficult to take down. This is a toss-up matchup that the +145 odds feel too significant on. Daniels has the hot hand, so expect him to continue cementing his place among the top quarterbacks in the league by leading his team to another upset win.
Minnesota Vikings (+130 ML) over Green Bay Packers (-3) on DraftKings Sportsbook
This NFC North matchup has a great deal still uncertain. Jordan Love is officially listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision for the matchup. He will be active, which is a positive change, but where his level of health is at is to be determined. This very well could be nothing more than gamesmanship as Malik Willis prepares to start his third consecutive game, but this is a storyline to monitor up until kickoff.
In either case, the Packers have a tough task against a hot Vikings team. Minnesota is one of the five remaining undefeated teams, entering with a 3-0 record in this game. Its defense has been especially impressive, holding opponents to just 10.0 points per game, which is the second-best rate in the league. It has forced the third-most turnovers and is holding opponents to the worst score percentage in the NFL. The Vikings are also coming off a week in which they held the Texans to just seven points with C.J. Stroud throwing two interceptions.
Whichever quarterback starts for the Packers will have difficulty. On the offensive end, Sam Darnold has continued his redemption arc. Darnold has thrown for 657 yards, an NFL-best eight touchdowns and is also leading the NFL in touchdown percentage at 10.3%. Divisional matchups always carry some extra intensity and this will especially be the case with running back Aaron Jones returning to face his former team for the first time.
The Packers are a good football team and this will be a competitive game. But points will be hard to come by against this Minnesota defense and the +130 odds for the upset are worth a swing.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+220 ML) over Houston Texans (-6.5) on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Jacksonville Jaguars are off to a disastrous start to the season and are at a pivotal point in the season. They are 0-3 to start the year with losses coming to the Dolphins, Bills and Browns.
Looking into their production, there is not much room for optimism for the Jaguars. Offensively, they rank 30th in scoring, 27th in yards and 29th in score percentage. Defensively, they rank 29th in scoring, 27th in yards allowed and are dead last in turnovers forced. The season is far from over and one has to think the Jaguars are better than they have played thus far.
This could be an opportunity in which they catch a team at the right time as the Texans are coming off a 34-7 dismantling by the Vikings last week. Houston ranks in the bottom third of the league in both points tallied and allowed so far. While C.J. Stroud has been given plenty of flowers already in his young career, he has an interception percentage twice what it was last year and is coming off his second-worst QB rating of any game in his career.
For the Jaguars to get the win, it will take Trevor Lawrence looking like the quarterback he was expected to be. This will be a measuring stick matchup for Jacksonville, but if it hopes to get its season back on track, it will start with getting its first win against the Texans as +220 underdogs.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
