MLB Saturdays are winding down, but there is no reason to frown. DraftKings Sportsbook offers plenty of ways to play. There are Money Lines, Run Lines and Player Props. Check out the best bets for the Saturday, September 28 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+142)
Andre Pallante is an underrated pitcher. He’s unappreciated because he doesn’t fit the mold of the modern velo-spin freak. His fastball and sinker have mid-90s velocity, but he doesn’t try to strike batters out. He wants ground outs (62% Ground Ball Rate). He’s a throwback to the previous era of pitchers and it works. Hitters have grown accustomed to tracking high-velo pitches up in the zone by strikeout-obsessed pitchers. Low-zone pitchers are rare. This gives Pallante an edge. He would be elite if his off-speed pitches were better or if he didn’t miss the bottom of the zone so often (3.7 BB/9). Despite the lack of secondary pitches and control, Pallante is 8-8 in 116.1 IP with a 3.71 ERA. That’s a quality pitcher.
San Francisco is matching up with Pallante at the wrong time. The whole season has been the wrong time for the Giants — .299 wOBA, .154 ISO and 93 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. This time is worse because Pallante is closing strong. Since August 10, Pallante has only one bad outing across eight starts (2.74 ERA in 49.1 IP). He’s allowed five hits, one run and struck out 13 batters in his last two starts (14 IP). His recent success is owed mainly to improved secondary options. The 26-year-old pitcher is on the cusp of a breakout. Look for him to close out 2024 strong.
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
The Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+105)
This is a tough spot, not for Paul Skenes but for DK Network. Paul Skenes picks get clicks but a 1 p.m. ET game pick has a short shelf life. The New York Yankees are popular, too. Obviously, the decision has been made. Obviously, Paul Skenes is the greatest young pitcher in 20 years, 30 years — ever. Another obvious fact is that this is the best Yankees team in years. This is a big game. It’s rare that MLB rivals college football on a fall Saturday afternoon but this game deserves primary screen attention. Stream your alma mater on the laptop. Skenes streams on the big screen.
Want to earn Cy Young votes? Want to impress the voters? Shut down the Yankees in a pivotal game in front of the New York crowd. Deny New York the AL regular season championship. Some might say the Cy Young is decided. Some are still on the fence. Skenes has the stats. His innings aren’t too far off. If a reliever with limited innings is the favorite in AL Cy Young race, then why disclude Skenes in the NL Cy Young race? Imagine Skenes closes the season with a sensational session against the Yankees. A voter can easily forget Paul Skenes’ 131 innings pitched compared to Chris Sales’ 177 and throw their hands up. That’s it! They’re voting Skenes.
Where are the stats? You know the stats. October is around the corner. This is narrative season.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Rays Moneyline (+105)
The Wizard of Boz is back. It’s time to look behind the curtain. Shane Baz — the Rays’ No. 3 prospect (MLB No. 51 Prospect) — had his rookie season cut short in 2022. His Tommy John surgery cost him 2023. He returned to Triple-A in 2024 and struggled. He allowed 14 runs in 16.1 innings in May. June was different — four runs in 23 IP with 35 strikeouts. That’s all the Rays needed to see. It’s not what the AL East wanted to see. They regret looking behind the curtain.
Baz might be the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. Since August 20, Baz has a 1.95 ERA. The advanced stats rate his fastball as a 3.87 pitch. For a point of reference, Tarik Skubal has the best fastball this season — 1.84 in 192 innings pitched. Baz’s curve and changeup have been Cy Young quality to close the season. The pitches shut down righties and lefties alike. They’re especially tough on left-handed hitters. That’s likely the reason he held the Red Sox to two hits through seven innings on Sep. 17.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @Race4thePrize.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
