The NFL season continues to fly by with Week 4 already upon us. The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants kicked things off on Thursday Night, leading to a 13-game slate on Sunday and another Monday Night doubleheader.
As you seek to maximize your DFS lineups, here’s a look at a few players who could have the inside track on outperforming their price point. Be sure to still get some superstars in your lineup, but here are some lower-budget names that could help you win your competitions!
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Quarterbacks:
Justin Fields ($5,500)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have yet to name Justin Fields the starting quarterback, but he will be entering his fourth week under center and has led the team to a 3-0 record so far. As Russell Wilson continues to battle his calf injury, the door remains open for Fields to win the starting job if he has not done enough already.
While the team’s success has been there, Fields has not had his breakout fantasy performance yet. Currently, he ranks 19th among quarterbacks in fantasy points on the season. The opportunity for the breakout is there Sunday as he prepares to face off with the Colts. Indianapolis is allowing opponents an average of 25.7 more plays per game this season and has been out-snapped by 30+ plays twice already this year.
Pittsburgh also currently ranks second in time of possession across the NFL. Anthony Richardson continues to battle turnover issues and has tallied six interceptions through the first three weeks. He will face off against a Steelers defense that has allowed an NFL-best 8.7 points per game and has forced four interceptions compared to their two touchdowns allowed.
Fields was a top-four fantasy quarterback in five of the 12 games he started and finished last year. He also finished as the seventh-best fantasy quarterback in 2022, the last time he was a full-time starter. Expect the Ohio State product to have the ball in his hands plenty in this matchup and for Fields to deliver his best fantasy football performance of the season thus far.
Andy Dalton ($5,300)
The Carolina Panthers made a surprising decision last week to bench former first overall pick Bryce Young in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. The 36-year-old successfully brought life to the Carolina offense and led it to a 36-22 victory over the Raiders. Dalton threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns in the victory without recording a turnover. This was good for 24.6 fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring, which made him the eighth-best producing quarterback last week.
The Panthers are now set to face off with the Cincinnati Bengals this week. With an 0-3 record, expect Joe Burrow and company to approach this game in desperation mode. Look for the Bengals to pour on points and for the Panthers to be playing from behind in the matchup. Dalton has shown the ability to elevate the skill positions around him and will look to replicate last week’s performance.
The veteran likely will not win you the week. But he can be counted on to outperform his price tag as the 22nd-most expensive quarterback this week if you choose to allocate funds elsewhere when building your lineup.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones ($6,400)
Aaron Jones enters this week as the 12th-most expensive running back. He should be circled in most lineups as Jones makes his return to Green Bay for the first time since joining another NFC North roster.
Through the opening three weeks of the season, Jones has produced 58.5 fantasy points, or 19.5 per game. This makes him the ninth-most productive running back so far and leaves room on the table for improvement. Jones was stopped on the one-yard line twice last week and has just one rushing touchdown so far on the year.
Jones is coming off his best performance of the season as he tallied 102 rushing yards, 46 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown last week against the Texans. Look for him to build off this as he gets revenge against his former team and for Jones to be one of the top fantasy performers of the week.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,100)
Through the opening three games of the season, Brian Robinson Jr. has tallied 45 carries for 206 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground. He should see additional opportunity this week with Austin Ekeler set to miss the game due to a concussion. Ekeler has primarily served as the passing down back, although Robinson is also capable in this role with 56 receiving yards on the season.
The Commanders will face off with the Arizona Cardinals, who rank 20th in rushing yards allowed and 24th in rushing touchdowns allowed already on the season. Opponents have tallied 130 or more rushing yards in two of the three games thus far.
Robinson currently ranks 16th among running backs in fantasy production to start the year. Look for him to improve off his 15.4 points per game average and have his most productive week of the season thus far.
Braelon Allen ($5,400)
There was plenty of hype surrounding Jets’ running back Breece Hall entering the season, but not enough attention was paid to Braelon Allen. Selected with the 134th overall pick in this year’s draft, Allen has played himself into a role within the Jets offense. He recorded just two touches in the opening game, nine in Week 2 and 14 touches last week, which he took for 68 total yards. Allen also made his way into the end zone twice in Week 2.
As the Jets prepare to face off with the Denver Broncos as eight-point favorites, there is blowout potential in this game. Bo Nix will continue to play through his rookie growing pains and his turnover issues could open the door for the Jets to take a commanding lead early on. This would only open the door for Allen to receive even more opportunities.
In either case, Allen has played himself into a role on the Jets offense and should be looked at as a fantasy-relevant player moving forward. Hall getting first dibs on touches will limit his upside, but expect Allen to outperform his price point, which is tied for 26th among running backs.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson ($5,600)
No player has benefited more from the Carolina quarterback change than Diontae Johnson. In his first week with Andy Dalton, Johnson logged eight receptions for a career-high 122 yards and a touchdown. The former Steelers standout received 37.8% of the targets after receiving just 21.8% when playing with Bryce Young. While the production was still strong, Johnson was also narrowly missed on two additional touchdown opportunities. One throw sailed just over his head and the other fell through his fingers on a tough play in the corner of the end zone.
Heading into this week, the Panthers are set to face off with the 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals as 4.5-point underdogs. Johnson should be expected to see a similar workload, especially following the news that Adam Thielen was placed on IR due to his hamstring issues.
Expect the Bengals to play like a desperate team and don’t be shocked if the Panthers fall behind. This should only open the door for more potential receptions for Johnson and the Panthers. It will be a tough matchup for the team, but don’t be surprised if Johnson ends up as one of the top scorers in all of fantasy football this week.
Jauan Jennings ($5,600)
The injury bug has not been kind to the 49ers to start the 2024 season. After leveraging that he might play in Week 1 all offseason, Christian McCaffrey was placed on IR and was forced to travel overseas to get his Achilles treated. In addition, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle each missed last week, with Samuel remaining questionable for this week.
Jauan Jennings has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the injuries and has impressed to start this season. Through the first three weeks, he has recorded 18 receptions for 276 yards and is tied for an NFL-best three touchdowns. Most of this occurred last week in which he tallied 175 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams.
While this level of play will be difficult to replicate, expect Jennings to remain a focal point of the 49ers’ offense. The 6-foot-3 wide receiver has a wide catch radius and has built up some chemistry with Brock Purdy. He has outperformed Brandon Aiyuk in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns as well as all other members of the team. Expect a small step back from last week but for Jennings to put forth another effective performance as he sits higher on the depth chart than is typically the case.
Tutu Atwell ($4,800)
The Los Angeles Rams will be desperate for wide receiver production as they prepare to face off with the Chicago Bears. Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will miss this matchup as they recover from their respective injuries. The Rams will need someone to step up and I am looking directly at Tutu Atwell.
After being held without a catch in the opening week, Atwell tallied three receptions for 48 yards in Week 2. Last week, the first week without both wideouts, the 5-foot-9 receiver reached 93 receiving yards. Atwell logged 74% of the offensive snaps in Week 3 after just 19% the week prior and 8% in the season opener. He has the second-highest route share among the Rams wide receivers and saw a 19.2% target share last week.
With this type of opportunity expected to continue, look for Tutu Atwell to outperform his price point and provide some positive fantasy football value.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert ($5,100)
The $5,100 price tag is a bit expensive for the tight-end position, but Dallas Goedert is worth it this week. The Eagles’ standout is coming off a career-best performance in which he had 10 receptions for 170 yards. Goedert will have a chance to replicate this as the Eagles continue to battle injuries to their key pass catchers as well.
DeVonta Smith has been ruled out this week as he continues to recover from his concussion. A.J. Brown is listed as questionable as he recovers from his hamstring injury. Brown missed last week and with the Eagles bye week coming next it wouldn’t be surprising if the team is conservative in their push for him to play.
Goedert has dropped in the Eagles’ pecking order among the offense throughout the years. He now steps back to the forefront of the offense and will be ready to deliver against the Buccaneers. Expect him to be at the forefront of the Eagles’ gameplan and to be active in Sunday’s game.
Mike Gesicki ($3,500)
The tight-end play has been poor across the board this season, but Mike Gesicki is one of the rare names to be outperforming expectations. Through the opening three weeks, he has tallied 29.6 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, which makes him the seventh-highest scoring player at the position on the season. Gesicki had his best performance in Week 2 when he tallied seven receptions for 91 yards.
The Bengals are set to take on the Carolina Panthers and are still in search of their first win. Desperation time should be setting in for Cincinnati who now hold +115 odds to even make the playoffs. Expect the Bengals to throw everything they have at Carolina this week as they begin their path back to being a postseason threat. Look for this to involve a great deal of scoring and for Gesicki to be involved in the passing attack.
Tight end is a high-risk position at this point, but Gesicki is in line for a strong opportunity to score and could outperform this price point with just one catch.
Defense & Special Teams
Los Angeles Rams ($2,800)
The Los Angeles Rams have had their struggles as a defense this season. Through the opening three weeks, they have allowed 30.3 points per game, the second-worst number in the NFL, and given up more yards than anyone else.
They have a chance to begin righting the ship this week as they prepare to take on the Chicago Bears. The offensive line has been a clear issue for the team as Caleb Williams has been sacked 13 times this season. Chicago has also only been able to generate 4.5 rush yards per attempt this season, which ranks 31st in the league. As a team, Chicago ranks 22nd in scoring, 30th in yards allowed and 28th in score percentage.
Though Aaron Donald is not walking through the door, expect the Rams to have some success generating a pass rush against the Bears. Chicago has generated just three offensive touchdowns on the year and is not a huge threat to produce. Williams has also thrown four interceptions and fumbled twice this season. Expect this to be a low-scoring matchup in which both teams struggle to score points. With the opportunity to produce turnovers and tally sacks on the table, count on the Rams to outperform their price point as the 15th-best defense this week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
