The great tight-end recession of 2024 has caused such a stir through a few weeks that there have been calls to scrap the position in fantasy altogether.
It starts with Travis Kelce, whose globetrotting summer has translated into a cruel autumn. He looks all of 34, having little juice in his routes and failing to carve out a role in the high-powered Kansas City passing attack.
Mark Andrews has 65 yards across three games, less than teammates Justice Hill and Nelson Agholor. He managed to get fewer receptions than both backup tight ends a week ago and looks lost on the field.
The Daltons—Kincaid and Schultz—have been victims of “too many cooks in the kitchen” offenses. George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and Trey McBride have struggled with injuries, while Kyle Pitts wonders how many people will overdraft him next year.
The position has been such a disaster that its sparked typical clickbait rhetoric such as “fantasy football doesn’t need tight ends.” Football fans are losing their minds and want answers. I have some explanations, but also think the hysteria is a bit misplaced.
The issue with tight ends?
Alright, here it goes: offense is down, big time. I admit that sounds too generic, but hear me out.
There haven’t been fewer touchdowns scored across the league through three weeks since 2006, and sack rates are the highest in over a quarter century. Yards are down across the board, and most games resemble Midwest schools playing in bitter November conditions.
Quarterbacks had mastered the art of beating the blitz on obvious passing downs with lightning-fast releases that left defenses vulnerable on the back end. In a change of philosophy, defenses have started to concede the run and deploy a pair of safeties. This has made pushing the ball downfield a nearly impossible proposition, thus shrinking the field and turning many offenses into check-down disaster classes.
It doesn’t help that running backs have dwindled in importance for a decade, and the current crop lacks talent across the board. Teams should be pounding the rock, but even in light boxes, they can’t.
That brings us back to tight ends, who should be racking up targets underneath. Offensive schemes have moved to try to get the ball into playmakers’ hands by any means necessary. Screens, hitches, slants—if defenders want to play back, outside receivers will try to gain a head of steam and do their work at the line of scrimmage. Tight ends have been relegated to decoys, blockers, or seam threats, mostly eradicating their production.
As grim as it’s been to start the season, I’m more inclined to believe this is a fad than a total revolution. With preseason and off-season training camps never meaning less, it should take groups more time to adjust schemes and find counters. All tight ends aren’t due to climb back to relevance, but there are a few I expect to put together nice campaigns.
Who is due to break out?
Dalton Kincaid
The Buffalo tight end was expected to have a massive opportunity share with the departure of Stefon Diggs but has regressed to “just another guy” in the game’s most effective offense. Josh Allen’s willingness to spread the ball has negated his assumed red-zone work, and Kincaid enters Week Four TE12 in PPR formats.
The 24-year-old remains the best skill-position player on the roster and only trails Khalil Shakir in targets. Allen being less stubborn doesn’t help matters, but eventually, the play sheet will fall Kincaid’s way. He’s too athletically gifted and dangerous in space not to be more of a factor going forward.
Tyler Conklin
On the other side of New York, Tyler Conklin’s time is finally approaching. Every Jets weapon gets a pass for putting up substandard stats over the last few years, dealing with the revolving door of incompetent signal-callers. Aaron Rodgers under center boosts every pass catcher stock, but few are considering the seventh-year pro from Central Michigan.
Conklin was a non-factor during his first two outings but put together an impressive showing on Thursday Night Football, snatching five catches for 93 yards. The 29-year-old emerged as Rodgers’ security blanket, notably once plays broke down. The latter loves using his outlets as tight ends, which bodes well for Conklin to finally break out.
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