The Week 4 NFL slate is full of great games and exciting matchups. Here are my favorite bets for these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Packers -2.5 vs. Vikings
The Vikings have been the best team in the NFL through three weeks but the Packers have been solid themselves. They lost a close one to the Eagles in Week 1 but have won back-to-back games despite having to turn to Malik Willis at quarterback. Josh Jacobs has been effective in the run game and all of the Packers’ weapons have contributed so far. They have also been solid on the defensive side of the ball.
Vikings DC Brian Flores has outdueled every offensive coach he has faced so far but Matt LaFleur will be his toughest test so far. LaFleur is a great offensive game-planner in general but he is also familiar with Flores’ concepts as he saw the Vikings twice last year in the division. It looks like Jordan Love could be back for Sunday’s game, but the way Malik Willis has played, they should be good either way. In fact, the uncertainty gives the Packers another edge because Brian Flores has to game-plan for two different styles of quarterback.
Matt LaFleur is 19-11 (63.3%) ATS vs. NFC North teams and the Packers should defend their home turf and get this win.
Jaguars +6.5 at Texans
This is the ultimate buy-low spot on the Jaguars. Public sentiment couldn’t be lower on the Jaguars because their loss was in primetime. The Texans played a terrible game last week themselves in a blowout loss to the Vikings. The Texans’ offense did not look the same without a serious running threat due to the injuries to Dameon Pierce and Joe Mixon. It looks like those guys could miss out again this week, along with WR Tank Dell. That would leave the Texans’ offense really short-handed.
The Jaguars’ offense has been really bad so far this season but somewhere inside Trevor Lawrence, the #1 pick still exists. If Lawrence can find any sort of rhythm then the Jaguars could compete in this game. With so many new weapons at wide receiver, it could just be taking time for them to connect with Lawrence. After three weeks, now is the time for the Jaguars to show some signs of life and compete in this game against their division rival.
Falcons ML (-130) vs. Saints
The Falcons were incredibly close to beating the Chiefs last week and they lost a game in Week 1 in which they didn’t allow a touchdown to the Steelers. This is a good team and things have just not broken their way so far. However, this is a great spot for them to get a win. The Saints hit their regression hard last week against the Eagles and they should have lost that game by a lot more. The Falcons have guys on the back end who can cover the Saints’ wide receivers and should keep everything in front of them.
On offense, the Falcons have many weapons at their disposal and Kirk Cousins seems to be getting more comfortable with them every week. The Saints’ defense was picked apart last week despite the Eagles missing several key weapons, they just failed to convert in the red zone and on fourth downs. The Falcons should be able to move the ball effectively and get the win at home.
Ravens -2.5 vs. Bills
The Ravens are 1-2 but they are just two plays away from being 3-0 like the Bills, in which case public sentiment would be much different around them. Lamar Jackson had a great game against the Cowboys and the Ravens’ rushing attack is looking dangerous. The Bills also have an elite rushing attack so this game really comes down to who has a better chance of stopping the run.
When it comes to defensive rush EPA, the Ravens are the 2nd best run defense in the league while the Bills are 27th. When measuring by defensive rush success rate, the Ravens are the best in the league and the Bills are 15th. It seems simple but these are two of the top-seven teams with the highest rushing rate in the league and one team has a much better run defense. Lamar Jackson should be able to hit a couple of shots down the field against the Bills and the Ravens’ defense will carry them to victory.
Chiefs -1/Jets -2 6-Point Teaser (-120)
The Jets got a much-needed break after playing their first three games within 11 days. After ten days of rest and no travel, they will host Bo Nix and the Broncos. Nix played by far his best game as a pro last week against the Bucs but that will be tough to replicate against the Jets’ defense. They have elite cornerbacks and some really dangerous pass rushers that will make things tough on Nix. The Jets are #1 in the NFL in sack percentage and that type of pass rush is similar to the Steelers who held the Broncos to six points just two weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self last week and the Jets should keep rolling in this spot.
The Chiefs are 3-0 and Mahomes just keeps finding ways to win. It is unclear if Justin Herbert is going to play this week but even if he does, he will likely be much less than 100%. Mahomes is an absurd 16-1 SU in road games against AFC West opponents. The Chiefs aren’t playing perfect football but they should have plenty of firepower to take down a banged-up Chargers team.
Cardinals/49ers Moneyline Parlay (-118)
The Cardinals’ offense appears to be the real deal and this is a good time to buy them with public opinion so high on the Commanders. The Commanders’ offense, led by Jayden Daniels, has been incredible but their defense is awful. The Bengals scored on every offensive drive they had last week. They just stalled out in the red zone and kicked a couple of field goals when the Commanders got touchdowns. Kyler Murray should be able to move the ball with ease against that defense and get his team the win at home.
The 49ers are in a bit of a must-win spot after suffering back-to-back losses to fall to 1-2. They are big favorites against the Patriots and should be able to pick up the win pretty easily at home. The Patriots have serious offensive line issues and they were destroyed by the Jets’ defensive front last week and given no chance to score points. The 49ers’ front should be able to do exactly the same. Even with their offensive injuries, the Patriots won’t be able to keep up.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
