There are some exciting games on the slate for Week 5 of the college football season. Below are some of my favorite bets for Saturday’s games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Saturday Slate
Georgia -1 at Alabama
#2 Georgia vs. #4 Alabama is undoubtedly the biggest game of the college football season so far. The winner of this game will have a huge advantage in their pursuit of an SEC championship and a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. Georgia looked dominant in their win over Clemson early on in the season but looked disjointed against Kentucky in their last game. Alabama has looked pretty solid for the most part but have yet to face any SEC competition. Both teams had a bye week leading up to this game so both teams should be healthy, fresh, and well-prepared for the game.
These are two of the best teams in the country so it is hard to find many flaws on either side. However, Alabama has some major problems in their secondary that no team has been able to expose yet. This is the first time Alabama will face a serious quarterback this year, and unless they’ve fixed their secondary’s issues over the bye week, Carson Beck should be able to hit deep shots and create explosive plays through the air. This will in turn unlock the entire Georgia offense, specifically the run game, which will always be their bread and butter.
This should be an exciting game in which both teams create some thrilling plays, but it is Carson Beck and Georgia that will ultimately come out on top because of the deep passing threat. Kirby Smart should have his team fired up for this game after the news cycle disrespected Georgia for the past two weeks following their bad performance against Kentucky. Georgia wins this game and moves back to #1 in the country.
Penn State -18 vs. Illinois
Penn State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is really talking about yet. Drew Allar and this offense have been totally unlocked thanks to new OC Andy Kotelnicki. The Nittany Lions are 4th in the nation in EPA/pass and they should be able to throw all over Illinois. Despite losing the game, Dylan Raiola and Nebraska were incredibly efficient through the air against the Illinois defense. Allar is more experienced than Raiola and he has more weapons to work with so the offense should look even better.
The Penn State defense is once again one of the best in the nation. They are 17th in the nation in defensive success rate and 22nd in defensive net EPA/play. Overall, they are the 6th best team in the country in net EPA/play. This should be a real coming-out party for Penn State as the entire nation sees what they can do against a ranked opponent in front of their insane white-out crowd.
Ohio State -23.5 at Michigan State
Ohio State has dominated their opponents so far, winning their three games by an average margin of 45.7 PPG, the best margin in the country. They do take a step up in opponent quality against Michigan State but not by that much. Michigan State has struggled on both sides of the ball to start the season. Their young QB Aidan Chiles likely won’t be up to the task against this elite Ohio State defense. They should be able to force mistakes out of the young QB as he attempts to keep up with Ohio State’s offense.
Teams that want to beat Ohio State this season need to take away the run game and force Will Howard to be a downfield passer. The Michigan State defense just gave up 102 yards on 7.3 yards per rush to Boston College’s lead running back in their last game. Ohio State should totally control the game and put up another monster score like they have in their first three games this season.
Indiana/NC State Moneyline Parlay (-107)
Indiana has been incredible to start the season. They have a chance to go 5-0 for the first time in 57 years with a win in this game. Head Coach Curt Cignetti has turned around the culture at this program so fast and the fanbase should be out in full force to back the team in this spot against Maryland. Indiana is 2nd in the nation in EPA/pass and their offense looks incredibly explosive with Kurtis Rourke at the helm. Maryland has a decent team but they shouldn’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Hoosiers on Saturday.
NC State has had a rough start to the year but now is the time to buy low. The Wolfpack is taking on Northern Illinois and this line is cheap because of the perception of Northern Illinois since they beat Notre Dame earlier this year. Well, since that game, Northern Illinois lost to Buffalo. This is not a very good team and even in a down year, Dave Doeren should have his team ready. There will also be no element of surprise because of the huge upset Northern Illinois pulled earlier this year. Doeren knows how dangerous they can be if NC State doesn’t bring their best and I expect them to take care of business and get the win.
UNLV -2.5 vs. Fresno State
UNLV has been in the headlines for the wrong reason this week. Their starting QB, Matthew Sluka, has elected to sit out the rest of the season with the intention to transfer because of a dispute over NIL money. To some people that might be a sign to fade UNLV this week, however, there are a lot of reports out of Las Vegas that the UNLV team is excited about new starting quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams. Williams, like Sluka, transferred in during the offseason. Williams was a record-setting quarterback at Campbell at the FCS level and there is a lot of optimism that he can maintain the hot run this team was on and even add a better passing element.
Fresno State has a lot of issues on defense that caused them to give up 30 points to Sacramento State and 21 points to New Mexico, who are two bad teams. UNLV has advantages on both sides of the ball and if Williams can add a passing element to this offense that was missing under Sluka, UNLV should pick up the victory over Fresno State.
Kentucky-Ole Miss u53
An Ole Miss under is always a scary prospect but it is the right side of the total to be on in this game. Kentucky is really tough on defense as evidenced by their great performance against Georgia a couple of weeks ago. The scoreline looked bad against South Carolina but that was because their offense continuously turned the ball over in their own territory. Outside of that game, Kentucky has only given up 6.3 PPG to their other three opponents. The Ole Miss offense will be the best they have faced so far but they should at least be able to limit the big explosive plays and slow them down.
On offense, Kentucky will struggle to score at all. The Ole Miss defense has looked really good this season and Kentucky has a lot of issues on offense. Kentucky will try to go as slow as possible, like they did against Georgia, to limit possessions and keep the game low-scoring. They won’t score a lot of points but they will chew up as much clock as possible which is the perfect recipe for an under.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
