Previously, we solely examined the most popular NFL picks against the spread by total number of bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. As we look at Week 4’s Sunday slate, we’ll look at that same grouping, as well as Week 4’s most popular NFL picks against the spread by total handle.
With this adjustment, there can be teams that pop up on both lists — which is the case for Week 4. The breakdown for teams that pop up on both lists will be in the Most Popular by Total Handle portion of this article.
Most Popular by Total Handle
No. 1: Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: Indianapolis Colts
Opening Line: +1.5
Current Line: -2
After opening as road dogs vs. the Colts, some respect is going Pittsburgh’s way. They’re now favored in Indy, and the spread is set at -2 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
With this underdog-to-favorite shift, some of the action the Steelers have seen came when they were getting points. That’s worth noting, along with the fact that the splits indicate there may be a slight sharp lean to Indianapolis.
The Steelers have received 77% of the spread bets for this game. But, those bets have only accounted for 75% of the handle. It’s a small difference, but something to consider, again, especially because of the underdog-to-favorite shift.
No. 2: New York Jets
Opponent: Denver Broncos
Opening Line: 7.5
Current Line: -8
This spread has moved around a bit, although the fluctuations have not been drastic. Still, getting this at its bottomed-out 7.0 or even its opening 7.5 line could make the difference for Jets bettors.
The Broncos are actually receiving a larger percentage of the spread bets for this game, accounting for 53%. But, the Jets have accounted for 56% of the spread handle on 47% of the bets.
No. 3: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Opening Line: 7
Current Line: 4.5
This spread has crashed significantly. Although, its current 4.5 mark isn’t the lowest it’s been, having previously bottomed out at 3.5.
What’s strange about that movement is the Bengals have seen 79% of the spread handle on 70% of the spread bets. Cincy covering is both the public and sharp play, yet the line has moved in the favor of Bengals bettors. Now, these splits could be the result of the line dipping more so than being the driving force. Definitely worth tracking the splits on DraftKings Network leading up to kickoff.
Most Popular by Number of Bets
No. 1: Bengals
(see above)
No. 2: Steelers
(see above)
No. 3: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: Green Bay Packers
Opening Line: -2
Current Line: +2.5
Another underdog-to-favorite shift. On the surface, this seems like the result of Jordan Love’s condition improving. Hard to imagine that’s not a factor, but the approach of this game’s bettors also appear to have had an impact.
Despite the Vikings seeing 71% of the spread bets for this game, those bets have accounted for just 46% of the handle. That means bettors who’ve picked the Packers to cover have accounted for over half of this game’s spread handle on just 29% of the spread bets.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
