It’s the final Friday of the 2024 regular season! Many teams are simply looking to end the year on a high note while others are getting their ducks in order for the playoffs. I’ll give you some of my favorite plays that you can take tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Taj Bradley over 2.5 earned runs allowed -120
Taking the over on Bradley earned runs allowed has been quite profitable in the second-half of the season. Bradley has gone over this number in eight of the 12 starts he’s made, all of which came in succession. For eight straight starts between July 31 and September 10, Bradley allowed at least three earned runs in a start. He’s on a REAL HOT STREAK of two starts where he’s allowed less than two. I’m not thinking he’ll make it to three straight against the Red Sox.
The biggest issue with Bradley has been left-handed bats. They’ve tagged him for a .330 wOBA with a 28% fly ball rate and a 49% hard-hit rate. The Red Sox lineup is chalk full of lefties. Tonight’s expected lineup should feature at least five of them to go against Bradley. He’s faced the Red Sox twice already, both which came in May and allowed seven runs through 12 innings of work. With a left-handed heavy lineup and a team that hits fastballs well, I’m digging the Sox to tag Bradley for at least three runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Game total under 11.5 runs -105
The Dodgers clinched (finally) the National League West last night. After a late night of celebration, I’m not exactly thinking they’ll come out firing on all cylinders in Coors Field tonight. Sure, it’s scary to take an under in a game at Coors but I think 11.5 runs is a bit steep when you consider the circumstances. We could easily see some of the Dodgers starters rest tonight, which would likely drive this total down a bit as well.
The pitching matchup is quite uninspiring. Cal Quantrill is pitching for the Rockies while the Dodgers starter is TBD but expected to be Ben Casparius. Spending most of his time in the minors, Casparius made 14 starts in Triple-A with a 3.36 ERA and 72 strikeouts. He’s made only a handful of appearances in the majors, so we don’t have a lot to go off of. As for Quantrill, he hasn’t been good but his numbers at home are better than on the road. He has a a 4.37 ERA with a 5.38 FIP. Not great by any means but it’s noteworthy. Nonetheless, I think the under is very much in play with the Dodgers likely going with a B-squad tonight.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Game total over 7.5 runs -112
This seems like a low total for two pitchers that have been struggling lately. Sean Manaea is set to go up against Frankie Montas, which surprises me that we’re seeing only a 7.5 total. Montas in particular has been reeling over the past month. In September, he’s made four starts for a total of 21 innings and allowed 13 runs. The D-Backs just lit him up for seven of those runs, knocking him out through just 2.2 innings. The Mets have been a good hitting club against the sinker, his main pitch, owning a combined .331 wOBA against it.
On the other side, Manaea has allowed at least three runs in six of the 10 starts he’s made since the beginning of August. The Brewers have been one of the best hitting clubs against the sinker in all of baseball with a team .409 wOBA and a .222 against that pitch. That doesn’t exactly scream to me that we’re going to see a low scoring game. That is by far the main pitch that he throws, doing so 67% of the time.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
