It’s the final Friday night of the MLB regular season, and DFS baseball heads into the weekend with style in a 12-game monster slate on DraftKings. Only six teams aren’t in the player pool this Friday, leaving plenty of high-upside plays to consider at every position and price point.
The Yankees and Dodgers each wrapped up their division on Thursday but still have something to play for while battling for the top seed in their league. While all the divisions are now wrapped up, there is still intrigue in the Wild Card races. The Tigers and Royals can clinch the postseason with a win or another loss from the sinking Twins. In the National League, the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Braves are all battling for the final two Wild Card spots with one team headed home before the playoffs get started.
With 24 teams scheduled to take the diamond, it’s a great night for big-slate fantasy baseball action, and it will be one of the last few chances to get this deep of a player pool. Let’s dive in and take a look at some of my top studs and values.
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PITCHER
Stud
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals ($9,400) – Fried and the Braves start their three-game home set with the Royals one game behind both the Mets and Diamondbacks. The Royals will still be “all in” on winning this game, but the Braves need it even more. The Royals have also been struggling badly on offense since losing Vinnie Pasquantino (thumb) to the IL. Over the last 30 days, they are tied with the White Sox for the fewest runs scored and have an MLB-worst .101 ISO and .260 wOBA.
Fried comes into this matchup 10-10 on the season with a 3.42 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and 8.5 K/9. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, increasing his strikeout rate with 47 over 49 1/3 innings. He has earned over 16 fantasy points in three of his last four starts and five of his last seven, highlighted by a 31.6 fantasy point performance against the Blue Jays early this month.
Value
Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($7,900) – I highlighted Cade Povich ($6,300) as one of my top bargains of the day. I love him as a cheap option, but Pivetta should be able to bring excellent value at this salary of just under $8,000. The Red Sox and Rays don’t have anything to play for, but Pivetta always brings a high ceiling due to his strikeout potential.
On the year, he has a 10.75 K/9 rate to go with his 4.21 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 26 games. He has been much better at home than on the road, with 86 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings at Fenway (11.8 K/9) and an ERA almost a full run lower than on the road. Pivetta posted over 18 fantasy points in each of his last six home starts dating back to before the All-Star break. He had dominant performances against the Mariners (28.8 fantasy points), Blue Jays (27.1 fantasy points), and Orioles (26.5 fantasy points) during that run. He boasts a similar ceiling against the Rays in his final start of the season before becoming a free agent this offseason.
INFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies ($8,000) – I don’t remember ever seeing a hitter priced at $8,000 in a classic contest, but it’s hard to argue against Ohtani’s salary since he’s at Coors Field and on such a tear right now. He’s already re-written the record books and continues to add to the best season in MLB history. Ohtani comes into the final series of the regular season with 53 home runs, 56 stolen bases, a .305 batting average, and a .428 wOBA. He also comes in with a nine-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 22-for-39 (.564) with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a .722 wOBA. During those nine games, Ohtani is averaging a ridiculous 25.3 fantasy points per game. Now take all that production and adjust it to Coors Field for the weekend.
Stud
Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($4,000) – Story has been very productive since returning from his shoulder injury with 15 hits in 16 games. He has three doubles, two homers, five stolen bases, and a .342 wOBA over that stretch. He brings both power and speed potential with a very good ceiling at only $4K as a result.
Value
Eric Wagaman, Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers ($3,800) – Wagaman started the year in Double-A but really took off by hitting .320 with a .371 wOBA in his 27 games in Triple-A before getting called up to the majors in mid-September. Since arriving, the 27-year-old righty has hit .254 with five doubles, two home runs, and a .308 wOBA. He moved into the heart of the Angels’ lineup hitting third on Thursday. He brings nice power upside and is making a case to be included in the plans for next season’s roster.
Value
Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros ($2,400) – I highlighted Manzardo in my bargain plays as well, but the short version is that he’s a top hitting prospect hitting second in a good lineup for an extremely affordable price.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,100) – Tatis has been limited by injuries this season, but when he’s been available he’s put together very good numbers. Over his 100 games, Tatis is hitting .283 with 21 homers and a .366 wOBA to go with 11 stolen bases. Tatis is also heating up as we get closer to the postseason. Over his last 14 games, Tatis has gone 19-for-57 (.333) with five doubles, seven home runs, and a .481 wOBA. He and the Padres will be at hitter-friendly Chase Field against Arizona as they take on Merrill Kelly ($7,800), who Tatis is 8-for-22 (.364) against in his career including four home runs.
Stud
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics ($4,500) – The Mariners missed the playoffs this season, but Rodriguez was able to turn things around after a tough start and has put together a strong second half. Even when he was struggling, his splits vs. left-handed pitchers held solid, so he should be in a good spot against J.P. Sears ($7,200). Rodriguez has six home runs in his last 12 games while going 15-for-58 (.414) with a .499 wOBA. Even though there won’t be any postseason in Seattle, he’ll look to close out the year at T-Mobile Park with a flourish.
Value
Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays ($3,300) – The Marlins played spoiler against the Twins this past week and now head to Toronto to face the Jays. Sanchez has been a streaky power producer throughout his career, and the 26-year-old lefty had three hits on Thursday in Miami’s extra-innings victory. He has hit .306 in September with a .345 wOBA and a 45.1% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. He has seven hard-hit events in his last four games alone, and he seems to be seeing the ball really well as the season winds down. If you need an even cheaper play, I wrote about Blue Jays outfielder Jonatan Clase ($2,600) in bargains on the other side of this matchup.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
