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Let’s get into picks worth considering from Sunday’s NFL main slate, which features eight games.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Joe Burrow
Passing Yards: 256.5
Burrow just blew past this number vs. the Commanders. He also had 258 passing yards in Week 2. So why set this number so low?
Well, looking at Carolina’s two losses, the opposing quarterbacks didn’t put up massive yardage. It wasn’t until the Panthers finally responded to those blowouts that we saw opposing QBs combine for a decent chunk of passing yards (214 from Gardner Minshew and 82 from Aidan O’Connell).
Furthermore, Burrow saw his big boost in Week 3 against a Washington team that’s allowed the second-most passing yards per game this season.
The play: LESS
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Anthony Richardson
Interceptions Thrown: 0.5
Richardson has been picked off in each game this season. On only one of those occasions has he been picked off just once.
While being at home could help some of his output, this isn’t Indy’s first home game of the season. In two games at Lucas Oil Stadium this season, he’s been picked off three times.
The Steelers weren’t able to reel in an interception in Week 3, but they still made life hard on the Chargers’ pass attack. And in the two games prior, Pittsburgh logged a pair of interceptions against each starting QB.
The play: MORE
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Alvin Kamara
Rushing Yards: 66.5
Kamara has crushed this number each week. But, he hasn’t walked into each week with question marks surrounding his health.
Opposing running backs have also crushed this number vs. Atlanta previously. The lowest output the Falcons have surrendered to a lead running back through three weeks is 70 yards (on 20 carries).
If Kamara was 100%, this would be a play to opt for MORE. But given how banged up he got vs. Philadelphia, primarily utilizing him in the passing game is a better way to involve him but also lower the risk of more aggravation.
Those looking for a MORE option with Kamara, Receptions and Receiving Yards were not available as of writing, but they’d be worth considering.
The play: LESS
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
Allen Lazard
Receptions: 2.5
Even though he’s gone over this number twice, this total makes sense for Lazard.
After easily clearing this number with six receptions in Week 1, he only logged two catches in Week 2. And while he logged three receptions in Week 3, he had no room for error. Lazard was only targeted three times vs. New England. But, going a perfect 3-for-3 against that Patriots defense isn’t a small feat.
What matters most here are the opportunities Lazard gets. Week 3’s three targets were a season low. In Week 2, he was targeted four times. In Week 1, Lazard had nine targets.
Even if he’s just getting three or four looks, Lazard is facing a Denver defense that could allow for him to have a clean day. Opposing lead slot receivers have reeled in 69% of their targets (9-for-13) vs. the Broncos.
The play: MORE
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
Kyren Williams
Rush + Rec Yards: 98.5
Williams went over this mark in Week 3, but it’s still a big bump for him compared to the first two weeks of the season. However, Week 3 was the first time Los Angeles knew what it was walking into on the injury front. No mid-game surprises.
Williams was the primary weapon on offense, and he responded with 89 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards. That can be replicated in some form vs. Chicago.
Opposing running backs have posted considerable yardage against that Bears defense. All Williams needs are opportunities — which he’ll have, even if Cooper Kupp (ankle) makes his return.
The play: MORE
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Brian Thomas Jr.
Receiving Yards: 45.5
Thomas has logged more than 45.5 receiving yards in each game to start the season. But, he’s only cleared it by a few yards on two of those occasions. While he may be Trevor Lawrence’s go-to receiver, there’s no question the passing game is in flux in Jacksonville.
A few receivers have put up numbers against this Houston secondary (Alec Pierce 125 yards, Justin Jefferson 81), but the Texans have made life tough for opposing quarterbacks. Houston has surrendered just 163 passing yards per game — the sixth-fewest in the NFL.
The play: LESS
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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