GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 4.
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Top DFS Stacks
Game Stack: Cardinals vs Commanders
Kyler Murray ($6,800) – Michael Wilson ($4,200) – Luke McCaffrey ($4,000) – Elijah Higgins ($3,100)
This game will be a popular one to target for DFS this week, as the total has risen by a point or two already and now sits around 50.5 at most sportsbooks. The good news for DFS is that with both teams having some underrated components on offense, there are still a lot of ways you can target this game and make unique lineups.
At quarterback, you’re probably not wrong to go with either Kyler Murray or Jayden Daniels ($6,500), who is slightly cheaper. Still, I don’t mind sacrificing a little efficiency with Murray, who has the Goldilocks matchup against the Commanders, who rank last in EPA per dropback and have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Murray has 300+ yard potential in this spot and even if he falls a little flat as a passer, he can make it up by scoring with his legs.
Scoring aside, the yards should be there for Murray and while most will choose the obvious stacking option and pair him with Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500), this is where I think you should get contrarian and leave the rookie out of your stacks. WR Michael Wilson is a talented young player in his own right and popped up with a 28% target share last week and an expanded route tree. Harrison has also been banged up and limited in practice, making Wilson potentially the preferred option for Murray this week. At just $4,200, he’s cheap and won’t carry nearly the same ownership as his running mate.
With Trey McBride now officially out, Elijah Higgins is another cheap option you can use to double up on your Arizona passing stack. The backup TE has shown promise as a pass catcher in the past, posting a 4-44-1 line in Week 15 of last year; a performance that came WITH McBride in the lineup. The Commanders allowed eight catches to the tight end position last week and Higgins is ultra cheap at just $3,100.
Finally, on the Washington side, this looks like a spot for rookie Luke McCaffrey to channel his inner Gambit and make a name for himself. The rookie has caught all six of his targets to date and posted a career-high 44 yards against the Bengals in Week 3. With Austin Ekeler (concussion) out for Washington, I’d look for McCaffrey to get increased usage on shorter routes and potentially even see some snaps out of the backfield.
Quarterback
Brock Purdy ($6,100)
Purdy is playing great ball, despite the 49ers’ 1-2 record. Over his last two starts, he’s completed 75% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns in the Week 3 loss to the Rams in a game where he also ended with 26.78 DKFP. This week, he’ll take on another failing pass defense in the Patriots who have allowed the eighth-most passing yards against this season and currently rank 21st in sack-rate.
Purdy managed to pick apart another defense last week that also had issues getting pressure on the quarterback and if the Patriots give Purdy a clean pocket again, the chances of him ending with a similar line to last week seem high. With the 49ers’ defensive injuries (Javon Hargrave – out), there is also a great chance this game ends up being more competitive than the current line (SF -10.0), giving Purdy a better chance of dropping back 30+ times and hitting the 300 yards bonus.
Running Back
Top End: Kyren Williams ($7,300)
The Rams come into this week’s game with the Bears as 3.0 point underdogs but given how poorly the Bears have performed on offense, it’s not likely the Rams will be down big late in this game. That should mean another heavy dose of snaps and usage for Kyren Williams, who found the end zone three times in last week’s comeback win against the 49ers.
Williams has taken 79% of the rush attempts and has an 86% snap rate on the year, and with the Rams 1-2, it’s unlikely they will cut down his workload in this spot. Chicago is also dealing with multiple injuries on defense and its efficiency as a rush defense has declined to start the season, allowing four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, while also allowing two running backs (Tony Pollard and Jonathan Taylor) to go for 80-plus yards and a score.. A clear bell-cow back, Williams is still very affordable and a player you want to build around at running back until his price goes up.
Lower End: Zamir White ($5,300)
I targeted another beleaguered running back in this spot in Week 3 in Chuba Hubbard, who responded with a monster 30.9 DKFP performance. We’ll look to repeat the endeavor this week with Zamir White, who hasn’t managed more than 44 yards rushing in a single game thus far, but having taken 71% of the carries last week for Vegas, still profiles as the Raiders’ early-down back.
The matchup with Cleveland also isn’t as intimidating as it might sound as the Browns allowed the Giants running backs to rush for 88 yards last week and have given up a rushing touchdown on the ground in all three of their games this season. With both LB Jordan Hicks and DL Myles Garrett questionable, it’s the right time to play for a bounce-back game for White, who should come with low ownership this week.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: George Pickens ($5,700)
Pickens is sometimes forgotten when people bring up elite wide receivers in the NFL, simply because he plays in a conservative offensive scheme. The third-year player has yet to find the endzone in 2024 but has still been the primary target for Justin Fields ($5,500), posting a 24% target share through three games.
I’d expect Pickens to be busier this week, just given the faster pace the Colts play at (6th in no-huddle usage), and the fact their secondary is the weakest Pickens has faced all year. Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year and has given up two 100+ yards games to opposing wide receivers already, including last week to rookie Rome Odzune. Even with Arthur Smith calling plays, Pickens is likely to get more deep targets in this game, which would give him a great shot at returning 4x or more off his very affordable $5,700 salary.
Lower End: Jonathan Mingo ($3,300)
The Panthers are taking on a Bengals defense that looked deflated last week, allowing a 91% completion rate to rookie Jayden Daniels, while also ceding 100 yards to Terry McLaurin. This week, they’ll take on a Panthers offense that looked rejuvenated under Andy Dalton, who threw for 319 yards last week and 8.6 yards per attempt in his season debut.
While most DFS lineups will be looking to Diontae Johnson ($5,600) in this spot, he’ll have a tough matchup with Cam Britt-Taylor, a legit number-one cornerback. Adam Thielen is also out for this week, which should give a boost to Jonathan Mingo, who comes in at just $3,300 and won’t need to do a whole lot to get to 3 to 4x output. Mingo’s 12% target share tied Thielen’s last week and with the veteran out, it makes Mingo likely to see a few more looks in this game; one where the Panthers seem very likely to see some prevent defenses late in the fourth quarter.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts ($4,800)
Pitts hasn’t seen high usage to start the season, as the tight end rolls into Week 4 with just a 15% target share on the year. Atlanta is going to spread the ball most weeks, but we can also expect that there will also be weeks when the focus of the offense shifts over to Pitts, who remains a matchup nightmare for teams who lack good cover linebackers and safeties.
The Saints under Dennis Allen should be the sort of matchup that Pitts can flourish in. Last week they allowed Dallas Goedert, who finished with 11 receptions and 170 yards, to go berserk, and going back to last season, they have now allowed three tight ends to post 130 yards or more against them on three separate occasions. Despite not being the focal point of this offense over the first three weeks, Pitts has still seen his usage rise slightly, to the point where he posted a 19% target share in Week 3. With New Orleans having solid outside corners this is the time where we could see Pitts’ target share spike into the 25% and above range and push him to his first big DFS week of the season.
Defense/Special Teams
Packers DST ($3,000)
People looking at the Packers/Vikings game this week aren’t likely to consider the defenses on either side for DFS, and if they do, they would likely side with the cheaper Vikings’ DST instead. The Packers have already outperformed twice this season, posting 21.0 DKFP in Week 3 and 11.0 in Week 2. Now, they’re at home against a divisional rival who everyone is talking about as being potentially the best team in the NFC.
Green Bay ranks 6th in EPA against the run and is a markedly better unit on defense under new DC Jeff Hafley. The Packers been far better at creating turnovers this year, with multiple interceptions in all three of their games on top of ranking ninth in sack rate. As a home favorite, I also don’t mind paying $3,000 for Green Bay, especially since we know it will come with very low ownership. Sam Darnold ($5,700) has played great to start the season but we know there is likely a turnover or two coming soon. I like using the low-owned Packers DST as a way to get leverage in bigger field GPPs and also wager against Darnold here.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recom
