Notre Dame fights for its playoff life against Louisville on Saturday afternoon. Here is how to bet the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Louisville (+6.5) at Notre Dame o/u 46
Notre Dame Team Breakdown
Notre Dame had very high expectations for this season that were immediately derailed by their Week 1 loss to Northern Illinois. Notre Dame can still make the College Football Playoff but they almost certainly need to win the rest of their games and this matchup against Louisville is one of the toughest on their schedule. The Fighting Irish blew out Purdue and shut down Miami (OH) in their last two games, but they are still dealing with the same glaring issue: bad passing offense.
Riley Leonard came to Notre Dame to elevate their offense. But, from a passing perspective, it has been a disaster. Leonard has been a very good runner and along with RB Jeremiyah Love, they have one of the most dangerous rushing attacks in the country. However, it gets tough to run against good defenses if you don’t have a passing attack to keep them honest. The Notre Dame offense is 91st in the country in EPA/pass, and even that seems a bit generous when you watch them on tape.
The Notre Dame defense can keep them in any game, despite how bad the passing offense is. They rank fifth in the country in defensive net EPA/play and fifth in EPA/play against the pass. However, this Louisville offense led by QB Tyler Shough will be their toughest test so far this season.
Louisville Team Breakdown
Louisville has looked great to start the season but they have not faced any really tough competition yet. They began their ACC schedule last week against Georgia Tech and won the game thanks to a special teams touchdown and a defensive touchdown. One thing Louisville did really well against Georgia Tech was defend the run, which is a good sign heading into this matchup. Georgia Tech has a really good rushing attack and the Cardinals held them to just 98 rushing yards as a team. Louisville’s defense ranks 22nd in the country in EPA/rush after that good showing.
Offensively, Lousiville is very balanced between the run and the passing game. They excel at passing the ball where they rank 5th in the country in EPA/pass. However, they also have the 28th-best rush offense when it comes to EPA/rush. That makes them tough to defend because unlike against Notre Dame, you can’t sell out to stop one or the other. However, this Notre Dame defense will be by far the best unit they have faced this season.
Louisville at Notre Dame Pick and Prediction
Louisville knocked off Notre Dame in 2023 in a breakout game for their team that went on to the ACC Championship Game. One reason for that win is the coaching advantage of Jeff Brohm over Marcus Freeman. Brohm has proven himself to be one of the best offensive coaches in football and he has a much better quarterback this season than he had last season.
Louisville should be able to move the ball against Notre Dame’s defense and manage to get some points on the board. Jeff Brohm will dip into his bag for this game and try to make a statement against Notre Dame just like he did last year. The lack of a Notre Dame passing offense will make it really tough for them to win with any kind of margin in this game. I’m taking the points with Louisville.
Best Bet: Louisville +6.5
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