Penn State hosts Illinois in a battle of ranked Big Ten teams on Saturday night. Here is how to bet the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Penn State (-18) vs. Illinois o/u 47.5
Penn State Team Breakdown
The Nittany Lions’ offense has been great to start the year. Last year, they lacked explosivity but new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has changed that. Penn State ranks 5th in the country in EPA/pass and 2nd in passing success rate. Drew Allar has made significant improvements since last season. The way they are playing now suggests that they are a real National Championship contender.
Defensively, Penn State has been really tough to beat. Their defense ranks 17th in the country in defensive success rate and they have allowed absolutely nothing on the ground. There will also be an raucous atmosphere at Beaver Stadium because this is the annual Penn State “White Out” game. That will make things way harder on the Illinois offense, in addition to the good defensive personnel that Penn State has.
Illinois Team Breakdown
Illinois has already exceeded expectations early on this season and picked up a huge win on the road against Nebraska. Their passing offense has been the real surprise that has pushed the team forward so far. Illinois is 20th in the country in EPA/pass and Luke Altmyer has taken a massive jump from where he was last season. Altmyer played a nearly flawless game against Nebraska and they needed him to in order to pick up the overtime win.
The Illini defense has been solid but not great to start the season. They have struggled some against the pass, ranking 78th in defensive passing success rate. That is not a good statistic when facing Drew Allar and this Penn State passing attack. They are also nearly dead-last nationally in average 3rd down distance allowed and they are 90th in defensive 3rd down success rate. Basically, the Illini are giving up a lot of manageable third downs to their opponents and allowing them to convert a lot of them. The Penn State offense will punish them if they do that in this matchup.
Penn State vs. Illinois Pick and Prediction
Both of these teams want to pass the ball a lot. It is near impossible to run on Penn State’s defense, and Illinois has been a much better passing than running team anyway. Luke Altmyer could have some early-game jitters with the energetic home crowd but he should have some success moving the ball. Illinois’ offense is unlikely to totally light it up but they could get a couple of touchdown drives together.
The Penn State offense should also be very pass-heavy. They have one of the best passing offenses in college football and Illinois has been beaten through the air this season. Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola lit them up through the air and the more experienced Drew Allar should be able to do even better against the Illinois defense.
Penn State should take control of this game early on and keep their foot on the gas until the very end. That will also cause Illinois to be more aggressive offensively to try to keep up. All of that game script lends itself to this game going over the total and Penn State covering the spread.
Best Bets: Penn State -18, o47.5
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