These are my picks to win every Week 4 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 4 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
49ers over Patriots – Big favorites have been struggling in the NFL so far this season but this is an ideal spot for the 49ers. They have suffered back-to-back losses and have been really banged up on offense but they should dominate the Patriots here. The Patriots’ offensive line is in shambles and the San Francisco defense should take control of the game and win it on their own. George Kittle could return this week which would be a big help for the San Francisco offense as well.
Cowboys over Giants – The Cowboys have won 13 of their last 14 games against the Giants. This is a matchup they have owned and that should continue this week. The Giants don’t have a cover guy that can take away CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott should be motivated to put his best foot forward in this game. Defensively, the Cowboys’ weakness is their rush defense but the Giants don’t have a real rushing threat. If they can just take away Malik Nabers, they should be able to limit what the Giants want to do.
Chiefs over Chargers – The Chiefs have survived through three weeks and haven’t looked great but now they get to face a Chargers team that could be without Justin Herbert and even if he plays he will likely be very hobbled with his ankle injury. The Chargers will also be missing Derwin James Jr. in the secondary who is facing a one-game suspension. The Chiefs should survive again and move to 4-0.
Jets over Broncos – The Jets looked fantastic last week against the Patriots and now they get extended rest before a matchup with the Broncos. The Broncos and Bo Nix played by far their best game of the season last week but this will be a much tougher defense than Tampa Bay’s. The Jets’ offense has also looked really dangerous the last six quarters they have played and Aaron Rodgers knows where to put the ball safely. Bo Nix is much more likely than Rodgers to make a key mistake that could be the difference in the game.
Texans over Jaguars – The Texans played really poorly last week against a tough defense but this Jaguars team is in total disarray. Their defense has been exposed on every level and Trevor Lawrence seemed mentally broken against the Bills. The Texans have a tough defense and are familiar with Lawrence’s tendencies, so they should also make it tough on him.
Medium Confidence
Packers over Vikings – The Packers could be getting Jordan Love this week but Malik Willis has also been playing great in his absence. The Packers’ offense is full of weapons and while it might be hard to predict who will be getting in the end zone for the Packers in any given game, it isn’t hard to predict that they will get in the end zone a lot. Brian Flores is an incredible DC and has baffled every coach he has faced so far this season but Matt LaFleur is now quite familiar with the concepts Flores likes to run. LaFleur should be able to scheme guys to get open and the Vikings are bound to hit some regression at some point.
Bengals over Panthers – The Bengals’ season is on the brink of being over. Last week was a desperate spot for them to get a win but if they move to 0-4 then their playoff odds shrink to close to zero. The Panthers found a huge spark when they brought in Andy Dalton last week but they still have a lot of issues on their roster that didn’t magically go away from that one big win. The Bengals are still the better team and should save their season here.
Falcons over Saints – The Falcons had multiple chances to win against the Chiefs last week but just couldn’t close the deal. The Saints, who started the season strong, were exposed by the Eagles last week. Philadelphia should have won that game easily but kept shooting themselves in the foot, and they won the game regardless of those mistakes. The Falcons should be solid on both sides of the ball and do enough to win this one.
Cardinals over Commanders – The Cardinals have played a really tough schedule so far but they have looked good overall. The Commanders’ offense is on fire but they have arguably the worst defense in the NFL. The Cardinals are at home and have an extra day of rest compared to the Commanders. They should be able to put up a ton of points and if they can just get a couple of stops against the Washington offense, they will get a win here.
Ravens over Bills – The Bills have looked amazing to start the season but the Ravens could also easily be 3-0 and we would then have a much different view of them. They are the hungrier team with a bigger need for a win. The Baltimore offense looks really efficient and they should be able to move the ball against Buffalo who does have some holes on the back end of their defense despite some teams not being able to expose them.
Coin-Flip Games
Lions over Seahawks – The Lions picked up a good road win against the Cardinals last week and they should be able to carry that momentum over to this spot. The Seahawks have looked great to start the season but their travel schedule has been all over the place and now they are flying to Detroit for a primetime matchup where the Detroit crowd will be insane. This should be a great game but the Lions home-field advantage could be the edge that gets them the win.
Eagles over Bucs – The Bucs were crushed last week by Bo Nix using his legs and running play-action to get the ball to playmakers in space. That is exactly what the Eagles want to do on offense as well and the Bucs can’t seem to stop it. The Eagles’ defense looked fantastic against the Saints last week and if they can carry that over to this game they should get the win.
Bears over Rams – The Bears have been unable to put the pieces together so far this season. The defense couldn’t stop the run last week and the offense couldn’t run the ball. We have also seen Caleb Williams make some rookie mistakes so far this season, although in Week 3 he definitely played his best game so far. This is his chance to make a statement with a huge win against the Rams who are still missing a lot of pieces on their offense.
Browns over Raiders – The Browns’ offense has looked terrible but the Raiders’ defense also looks really bad. The Browns should be able to move the ball against this defense and the Browns’ defense is the best unit between the two teams. The Browns’ defensive playmakers will win them this game.
Titans over Dolphins – The Titans are one of only three 0-3 teams in the league but they could get their first win here. The Dolphins are in total disarray with the current state of their quarterback play. The Titans are solid on defense and should be able to limit the Dolphins’ offense with Skylar Thompson or Tim Boyle playing quarterback. If Will Levis can simply avoid making catastrophic mistakes, the Titans should win this game.
Steelers over Colts – The Steelers have been great so far this season and this is another very winnable game for them. Justin Fields should be fine against this Colts defense which has not been very good. Also, the Steelers’ defense should get after Anthony Richardson and force him into some mistakes. This should be a close game but ultimately, the Steelers will get the win.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
