Thursday night features just a three-game slate of baseball, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. As teams gear up for the playoffs, there are still some MLB Picks to be made. I’ll give you some of my favorite bets for tonight’s slate on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Padres team total over 4.5 runs +145
The Padres are still fighting for the NL West title but need a win to keep that hope alive. They’re in a good spot to keep that dream alive, facing Dodgers starter Walker Buehler. It’s been a lost season for him since returning from injury, as he’s logged 15 total starts spanning 70.1 innings. Buehler has a 5.63 ERA with an xERA of 4.81 with an 8.1 K/9 and a 2.05 HR/9. Both sides of the plate have been hitting him hard but lefties especially. They’ve tagged him for a .401 wOBA with a 5.46 FIP and eight of the 16 home runs he’s allowed.
The Padres have been one of the best hitting clubs against the fastball, with tonight’s expected lineup owning a combined .392 wOBA and a .230 ISO. That’s the main pitch that Buehler uses and it hasn’t been fooling anyone. Opponents have combined for a .377 wOB and a .276 ISO against that pitch, which he’s throwing 31% of the time. This certainly seems like a bad spot for Buehler, who has allowed 10 runs over his last three starts, spanning 17.1 innings. I think the Padres go over this run total tonight.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
The Pick: Game total under 8 runs -105
I was thinking maybe this game total would be set at 7.5 or even 7, so I was a bit surprised to see eight runs with -105 to the under. Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes will get their final tune up before the playoffs tonight in New York. Burnes looks as if he’s turned it around in September after a rough patch. Through 25 innings he has a nearly perfect 1.08 ERA with a .234 wOBA and 22 strikeouts. This is coming off a month of August where his ERA ballooned to 7.36 with a .357 wOBA. The Yankees will be a tough final test but Burnes has shown he’s back on track.
Cole rebounded nicely against the Athletics his last time out after getting shelled by the Red Sox. Cole tossed a complete game allowing just one run and striking out seven on 99 pitches. In his two starts against the Orioles this season, Cole has thrown 10 innings, allowing three runs and striking out 12. This Orioles offense has been extremely inconsistent as of late and against the fastball over the past month, they have just a .256 wOBA with a .149 ISO.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
