It just doesn’t feel like he’s got much value, right? Something about the Titans always gives me, as a fantasy football manager, the willies. Especially when it comes to wideouts. Even more so when I am advocating trading for one of them, let alone buying low.
Through three games, Calvin Ridley is the 37th-ranked wideout in PPR fantasy leagues. His best game was in Week 2 against the Jets, when he had four receptions on six targets, 77 yards, one touchdown, and a single carry for ten yards. He hasn’t topped 50 yards in any other game.
But, followers of my content (check my handle @dansby_edits out for fantasy threads here at DKNetwork all week long) know how much I love cracking a bag of Nerds Gummy Clusters and rummaging through advanced receiving metrics. And I’ve found something, here, with Ridley.
Analysis
Ridley is, strangely, a fine—in truth, alarmingly pound-for-pound—comp for Rome Odunze’s 2024 season right now. Ridley ranks fifth in air yards (345); Odunze ranks sixth (328). The former has a 17.6% target share; the latter commands 16.4% of targets. They both average 2.55 yards of separation at the catch-point for all their receptions so far this year.
See? Alarming. Now, Odunze’s over-expected metrics speak a bit more to positive regression coming his way. Not so much with Ridley.
So—what it comes down to is whether or not you believe air yardage for air yardage’s sake is worthy of a blind investment. Will Levis remains an anomaly; we know he can throw the deep ball, but we’ve seen some of his rawest moments exhibit themselves as immaturity (see: inexcusable throw which led to surrender cobra in Week 1, etc.) so far.
I’ve been bitten before by trusting too much in air yards alone as a vector. But I honestly believe it’s Ridley’s final year to get one last chance from fantasy managers. I’ll grant him that. Of the top-ten receivers in air yards, Ridley ranks second in average route depth at 14.5 yards (second to MHJ, who, in his rookie season, is averaging 15.5 yards per clip).
Folks are understandably spooked by his 1.9 FPT performance in Week 3. But consider this: in Weeks 1 and 2, he logged 51 and 50 offensive plays, respectively. In Week 3, that plummeted to 38. There’s been no word of an injury, so this was likely just a slow game-script against the Packers. He’s still run 92 routes on the year, which is above league-average.
Don’t be fooled by that box score. Others will be.
Outlook
When Ridley catches the ball, he’s racking up incredibly-efficient touches. I believe that Ridley and Will Levis will find their groove before the end of the fantasy regular season. His air yardage numbers might well plummet this week against the Dolphins, depending on where Jalen Ramsey lines up and how often he’s there.
But there’s some untapped production with Ridley so far. It’s either a total anomaly, or a sign of things to come. I’ll pretend I’m looking at tea leaves and send out offers for him everywhere.
Verdict: Trade for him.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
