The Oklahoma City Thunder made waves last season, clinching the top seed in the Western Conference with a 57-25 record. They became the youngest NBA team to ever finish atop the conference standings. Despite their stellar regular season, the Thunder fell short in the Western Conference Semifinals, losing to the Dallas Mavericks, but the potential ahead remains impressive.
Heading into the 2024-25 season, the Thunder’s over/under is set at a lofty 56.5 wins on DraftKings Sportsbook. The only team with a higher bar to chase is the Boston Celtics, who pulled off an impressive championship run after a 16-3 postseason record.
It’s clear why expectations are sky high for the Thunder. Last season, they were one of only two teams, alongside the Celtics, to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating, showcasing their balance on both ends of the floor. Oklahoma City’s young talent should only continue to improve over time, but regardless, the front office did not sit idly this summer.
With a bolstered roster around the Thunder’s young core, there’s optimism they can make an even deeper playoff run. DraftKings Sportsbook offers strong betting opportunities on their win total, with many believing this team is poised to repeat, or even exceed, last year’s success.
Thunder’s Key Offseason Moves Bolster Title Hopes
Thunder general manager Sam Presti made significant moves this summer, most notably trading Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso. While Giddey’s potential was evident, his inconsistent shooting and defensive limitations became a liability for the team. It became a significant issue against the Mavericks, who emphasized shrinking the floor by sagging off Giddey as the “weak shooter” on the floor.
Later in the series against the Mavericks, the Thunder benched Giddey in favor of Isaiah Joe to make it more challenging for Dallas to load up the paint. With Joe being 6-foot-3, the lack of perimeter size immediately became a problem against an offense led by Luka Doncic. There wasn’t enough time to find a successful formula to overcome the Mavericks’ complementary players converting at such a high clip from beyond the arc, along with Doncic’s dynamic production.
Caruso provides elite perimeter defense and an overall 3-and-D skill set, which fits more seamlessly into the Thunder’s needs for spacing around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. At 6-foot-5, he presents a bigger option not to concede perimeter size. His addition should improve the Thunder’s defense despite already being one of the top units in the league. Oklahoma City is going from having a defender in Giddey that opponents tried to hunt in screening actions to having one of the league’s best in that area, and it should result in a drastic improvement.
Another crucial addition was signing free agent Isaiah Hartenstein, giving Oklahoma City much-needed interior toughness and rebounding. It became a criticism of the Thunder that they couldn’t hold their own well enough on the boards — another area the Mavericks overwhelmed them in the playoffs. Hartenstein’s presence allows Chet Holmgren, who shined in his delayed rookie season, more freedom to play on the perimeter.
These roster changes further solidify the Thunder’s outlook as a top contender, reflected in their +700 odds to win the NBA title on DraftKings Sportsbook, second only to the Boston Celtics (+295). Bettors should also consider Oklahoma City’s Western Conference seeding as the Thunder’s over/under seeding set at 2.5, with odds of +115 on the over and -140 on the under.
While the Thunder have yet to make aggressive midseason moves, the threat of them leveraging their war chest of future draft picks is always another element to consider. However, the core group already in place remains the greatest source of intrigue for Oklahoma City’s forecast.
Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Lead OKC to a Championship?
Gilgeous-Alexander remains the engine behind this Thunder team. After finishing as an MVP finalist last season, he’s entering 2024-25 with significant momentum. DraftKings Sportsbook places him at +600 to win the MVP award, trailing only Nikola Jokic (+350) and Doncic (+370). Given Gilgeous-Alexander’s upward trajectory, there’s a real chance for him to secure the MVP, especially if Oklahoma City exceeds expectations once again.
Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 30.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists last season, will continue to provide elite scoring and playmaking. His impact, combined with the continued development of young stars like Jalen Williams and Holmgren, positions the Thunder to not only be a regular-season powerhouse but also make a deep playoff push. There wasn’t a clear secondary threat in the postseason once Oklahoma City faced the Mavericks’ tough defense. It often became the Thunder’s best player trying to make something happen off the dribble without much help.
Holmgren must be ready to shoot at a high clip from beyond the arc this season, particularly if he’ll play next to Hartenstein in the frontcourt. He was productive in the regular season, averaging 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.3 blocks while shooting 53.0% from the floor and 37.0% from deep. However, he converted at just a 22.2% clip from beyond the arc on 4.5 attempts per game against Dallas in the playoffs.
Another area where Holmgren can further elevate his game would be to become an even more efficient threat at attacking the paint off the dribble. He’ll be guarded by wings often but has to be equipped to punish teams who try to crossmatch while having less space to attack. Regardless, he brings a dynamic defensive presence that deters opponents from attacking the rim with his fearless shot-blocking approach. He should only get better defensively with time, too.
Williams had impressive moments in the Thunder’s playoff run, but his inconsistency mid-series against the Mavericks was too much to overcome. He scored 18 points or more in three of his six performances but had a three-game stretch from Game 3 to Game 5 averaging 14.0 points and shot 40.9% overall and 14.3% from deep. He became reluctant to shoot from the perimeter, taking only 2.3 attempts per game during this stretch. It wasn’t enough impact from the secondary option when the Thunder needed him the most.
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