I know why you’re here. It’s not for my sparkling personality or my devilish good looks. It’s for a couple MLB bets on tonight’s slate.
I guess I can accept that. Let’s dive into Wednesday’s action on the diamond.
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Keider Montero Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
It can be difficult betting baseball in the final week of the regular season. It’s tough to know which teams are actually motivated to try and win a game or which pitchers might be pulled early due to workload concerns. We shouldn’t have that issue with the Tigers, though. They need to keep pilling up the victories in order to secure their first playoff spot in over a decade.
Montero has been a huge part of Detroit’s recent run to a Wild Card slot. The rookie certainly struggled to begin his tenure at the MLB level, yet across his last nine starts, Montero’s pitched to a 3.31 ERA. That includes a stretch of 14 consecutive scoreless innings over two outings at Comerica against the Rockies and the Orioles in the middle of September. Montero’s also managed to strikeout at least five opponents in five of those nine outings. I’d expect some more swing-and-miss success in this evening’s matchup with the Rays.
Tampa’s current lineup is incredibly young and that’s manifested most heavily in the team’s propensity to strikeout. Since the beginning of the month, the Rays not only own the league’s seventh-highest strikeout rate at 26.3%, but they also sport baseball’s highest chase rate (37.2%) and its third-highest swinging strike rate (14.7%). That’s a pretty clear formula for striking out an absurd amount.
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Under 7.5 (-112)
Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Mets and the Braves has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Speaking of games that matter, let’s talk about arguably the most important contest of the night. The Mets and Braves are separated by just a single game in the hunt for a Wild Card spot in the National League. Including this evening’s tilt, the two teams have only two matchups left against each other. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to do that math. As such, I’m expecting a playoff-caliber game on Tuesday, complete with playoff-caliber bullpen maneuvering by both managers. We won’t be seeing any scrubs in this one.
I should note that neither squad might need their bullpen all that much. We actually have a fantastic pitcher’s duel lined up in Atlanta, with Chris Sale taking the ball versus David Peterson. Let’s start with the more known commodity. Sale is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young in 2024 and it doesn’t take a lot of digging to see why. Sale leads all qualified pitchers in ERA (2.38), FIP (2.08) and strikeout rate (32.1%). You couldn’t ask for a more dominant campaign from the oft-injured 35-year-old.
Peterson is not going to finish on any Cy Young ballots, but that doesn’t change the fact that the left-hander has been locked in since the beginning of August. In his last 10 outings, Peterson has registered a 2.69 ERA with a 2.83 FIP. In this span of time, Peterson’s only surrendered more than two earned runs in a start twice. The Braves certainly won’t find it easy to score runs off the southpaw on Wednesday.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
