If you had both the Cowboys and Giants to both be 1-2 heading into Week 4, raise your hand.
These two teams are set to do battle on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 4. As always, there is a plethora of ways to bet on this game on DraftKings Sportsbook. I’ll give you some of my best bets and predictions for this matchup.
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New York Giants +5.5 -108
This should be a get right spot for the Cowboys, but I can’t get behind that notion. Every time I try to convince myself that and go to bet the Cowboys -5.5, I can’t do it. They’re a mess right now and I think even against the Giants, it’ll be too much to overcome.
I cannot state enough how bad this Cowboys team has been against the run. Through the first three weeks, they’ve allowed 392 rushing yards on 72 attempts, which is a massive 5.4 yards per carry. Last week against the Ravens, a team that loves to run, they combined for 274 rushing yards on 45 carries and 6.1 yards per carry. The Cowboys allowed 10 carries to go over 10 yards and 3.3 yards per carry after contact. This is more of an extreme case, as the Ravens run at one of the highest rates in the league. However, if this is an area to exploit the Cowboys weakness, why wouldn’t the Giants do that? So far, they’ve only run 39% of the time, but I would expect a bit more here against the Cowboys.
If the Cowboys do decide to try and stop the run, what will that do for the unbelievable connection we’ve seen between Daniel Jones and Malik Nabers? Sure, Jones will face plenty of pressure from the Cowboys defensive line. He’s already been under pressure on 41% of his drops backs, tied for the second-most in the league. In that situation, he has an adjusted completion percentage of 68% and has yet to throw an interception. The Cowboys secondary hasn’t been a strong point either and both Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson have good matchups in coverage. I think the Giants will cover this spread on Thursday.
Wan’Dale Robinson over 4.5 receptions +115
Everyone is going to be all over Nabers in this matchup and rightfully so. While I do like his overs, I think Robinson is another Giants player you can take overs on as well. He’s been the clear cut WR2 in this offense, drawing 23 targets and making 15 catches for 123 yards. While the yardage hasn’t been huge, he’s making an average of five catches per game. He plays almost exclusively in the slot (79% of his snaps), which is a great matchup to exploit against the Cowboys.
In coverage, he’ll be against CB Jourdan Lewis, who hasn’t been effective for a few years now. Since 2022, Lewis has been targeted against 111 times and has allowed 79 catches for an average of 10 yards per reception. In the early going for this year, Lewis has allowed five catches on eight targets for 27 yards. With Jones not really looking toward anyone but Nabers and Robinson when he’s throwing the ball, I like Robinson to go over his reception total in Week 4.
Ezekiel Elliott under 7.5 rush attempts -115
I’ll never understand why the Cowboys brought Elliott back for the 2024 season but his time could be up soon. After working as the RB1 in Week 1 against the Browns, Elliott has played second fiddle to Rico Dowdle over the past two games. Granted, neither running back is taking a lot of carries but it’s very clear that Elliott is has slid down the depth chart. Elliott has taken a total of nine carries against the Saints and Ravens after doing so 10 times in Week 1. In fact, Elliott was only on the field for 10 total snaps in those two games. He hasn’t been effective either (which is a surprise to no one) logging just 3.3 yards per carry and just over 2.1 after contact. He’s shown nothing to the Cowboys to give him the ball more, so I can’t imagine he suddenly sees a spike in carries this week, barring a total blowout from the Giants.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
