We have one of the games of the year in college football on Saturday night. No. 2 Georgia travels to Tuscaloosa to take on No. 4 Alabama in the SEC opener for the Crimson Tide. Needless to say, when UGA takes on ‘Bama on any stage, all eyes will be watching. Let’s breakdown the best rivalry in college football below.
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday (7:30pm ET)
This is a monster game as it pertains to the landscape of the SEC, with Georgia and ‘Bama squaring off in the regular season for the first time since October of 2020 — a 41-24 victory for the Crimson Tide at home. Of course, the two teams have met a few times since then, with ‘Bama besting the Bulldogs in the SEC title game in 2021 and 2023, but UGA getting the last laugh in the 2021 National Championship Game.
Let’s set the scene with a couple of mind boggling stats. Alabama has not been priced as a home underdog in nearly 17 years (November of 2007), which was before Nick Saban even took over as Head Coach. LSU came into Tuscaloosa as a 6.5-point favorite, and won by a touchdown. Georgia hasn’t lost in a regular season game since November of 2020, a loss to Florida just three weeks after the regular season loss to ‘Bama referenced above. So what’s it going to be on Saturday night?
What makes this game a little tougher to handicap is that we have these two powerhouse teams meeting so early in the season. We’re used to ‘Bama and Georgia clashing in December and January, but September is a bit of a new one. While we’ll go over what we’ve seen from both teams thus far, we just don’t have much data against solid competition to know exactly what either roster is. We generally have a much better feel for that by the time we reach the late season matchups we’re accustomed to between these two teams.
No doubt Georgia will have revenge on its mind for the loss in the 2023 SEC Championship. They were playing for that same revenge in 2021 when the Bulldogs beat Alabama just about a month after ‘Bama bested them in the SEC Title Game that year. But this is also a new Crimson Tide program in many ways, most notably with Nick Saban out and Kalen DeBoer in.
Georgia has the most impressive win of the two teams so far, blowing out Clemson in Week 1 in Atlanta. But the Bulldogs struggled out of the gates before opening that game up in the second half. Georgia also has the least impressive win of the two, barely grinding its way to a 13-12 victory at Kentucky two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Alabama struggled for three quarters with USF for the second straight season, but this time around blew the game open in the fourth quarter. Both ‘Bama and UGA are coming off byes, so they’ve had a chance to get some guys healthy and do plenty of game planning for this one.
Georgia and Alabama have both shown weaknesses in the secondary so far this season. The Bulldogs do have one of the top safeties in the nation in Malaki Starks, but everyone around him has been beatable. The Crimson Tide has a youthful secondary that is yet to be tested, and we’ll learn a lot about them on Saturday night. Of course, we’re talking about the cream of the crop here. Through three games both schools rank top-10 in passing yards allowed this season, but don’t be surprised to see some explosive plays on Saturday night.
Up front, both defenses are stout, although the numbers might not show that so far. Georgia ranks 27th in the country, allowing 108 rushing yards per game. Alabama ranks down at 57th, allowing just over 132 rushing yards per game. A lot of that damage came against a mobile quarterback, though, as Byrum Brown ran 23 times for 108 yards for USF. Wisconsin also had their quarterback get injured against Alabama, forcing the Badgers to lean on the ground game. Wisco wound up rushing four different ball carriers 38 times for 155 yards, much of it coming with the game out of hand.
The Bulldogs run defense had a strong showing against Clemson in the opener, limiting Phil Mafah to just 59 yards on 16 attempts, which carries some weight. But Georgia was unable to stop Kentucky’s rushing attack in their SEC opener on the road, as the Wildcats’ running backs racked up 141 yards on 31 carries in a close game. Had Kentucky been a bit more versatile, it likely pulls the upset.
Both of these teams should look to pound the rock in this game, which does have me leaning under the total of 48.5. What Georgia lacks in this spot though is two things. While Carson Beck is an elite talent at quarterback, he doesn’t run the ball much (11 carries for 55 yards through three games). Beck wants to drop back and pass, and the losses of key weapons like Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey to the NFL doesn’t help.
The Bulldogs are going to have to prove their outside weapons in this game, and it will come against a defense that looks much different than what they’ve seen in the past from ‘Bama. The Crimson Tide are disguising their defense more, showing more man, but dropping into zone. That may lead to some easier completions for Beck, but likely less explosive plays.
Alabama has the dudes to make explosive plays. Jalen Milroe’s strength is the deep ball, and DeBoer will have some stuff dialed up to attack Georgia deep. The easy comparison is looking at what DeBoer did with Washington last season, wreaking havoc with Michael Penix Jr. I would dial in on two games specifically that are encouraging for ‘Bama’s chances in this game — Washington’s two wins over Oregon in 2023. The Huskies put up 36 and 34 points, each in three-point wins over the Ducks, including a win as a near double-digit underdog in the PAC-12 Title Game. Of course, Dan Lanning is the Head Coach of Oregon, and left as the Defensive Coordinator of Georgia to take the job.
Milroe is going to be the key to this game in my mind. If he can limit turnovers, as he has so far, I’m expecting some big plays with his arm and his legs. Jam Miller had led the Tide’s ground game with 29 carries for 265 yards and three touchdowns on the season, but Milroe’s dual threat always opens things up. Milroe has six rushing touchdowns on the season, which Georgia will have to account for.
If Alabama can keep the Bulldogs on their toes in the run game with Miller and Milroe, look for the big plays through the air to come. Ryan Williams is the receiver to keep an eye on there. The freshman is averaging an absurd 28.5 yards per reception, hauling in 10 passes for 285 yards and four touchdowns. However, he is just 17 years old, so a physical defense like Georgia could create some issues.
The bottom line is that we’re going to learn a lot about these two teams from this game. It’s the boring answer, but with two teams this good facing off early in the season without much data to go on, it’s a difficult handicap. Going against Georgia off the SEC Championship loss last year and a poor showing in its last game against Kentucky isn’t exactly a comfortable position to take. But I believe the combination of Milroe’s big play ability on the ground and through the air, DeBoer’s offensive performances against similar defenses last season, and the home field advantage in Tuscaloosa is enough to go with ‘Bama in this spot.
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