It sort of felt pre-destined, right? All of the Carolina +5.5 bettors on DraftKings Sportsbook would certainly tell you as much. Writ large was the prophecy of Andy Dalton’s ($5,300) glorious return as a starting quarterback against a white-hot Raiders team. It was a letdown spot for the Raiders after their Week 2 stunner over the Ravens; it was a bounce-back spot for the Panthers, no matter the quarterback. But, oh—did the quarterback matter.
Dalton ripped. His final passing line was sparkling: 26/37, 70.3% completion rate, 319 yards, and three touchdowns. To say that Diontae Johnson ($5,600) was his go-to guy doesn’t exactly do it justice. Johnson ended the day with fourteen targets; he converted those into eight receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. 14 of Dalton’s 37 attempts went to Johnson. The math works out to something in the ballpark of, say, a holy-crap target rate.
Adam Thielen is now on IR. Another target will have to emerge behind Johnson. In the meanwhile, it’s a worthwhile conversation to have: just what is Diontae Johnson’s value for Week 4 in DFS and season-long fantasy?
Analysis
Let’s not bury the lede. Diontae Johnson leads the NFL in end zone targets after three games with a total of six. Combine that with a 30.8% target rate in this Dave Canales offense, and, all the sudden, we have a rocket-ship to which we should attach ourselves.
Bryce Young decimated Johnson’s production. In the weeks when Young started, Johnson had a receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) of -49. That’s sixth-worst in the NFL. The positive regression is going to keep coming with Dalton at the helm. It’s already started.
Even with Young’s awful play at quarterback, Johnson, after three weeks, ranks 23rd in the league in air yards. He ranks 34th in actual receiving yards. The latter number is due to get better.
Drops have always been an issue, but not this year! Maybe that’s because Bryce Young’s balls were so uncatchable they couldn’t be dropped. But, so far, Johnson only has one drop. That’s below league-average. We love it.
Everything about Johnson’s advanced receiving metrics say to me: buy all the way in.
Bottom Line
I know it’s as much a letdown spot for the Panthers this week as it was last week for the Raiders. It’s probably, too, as much a bounce-back spot for the Cincinnati defense as it was for the Carolina offense last week.
Regardless, I’m in. I have Diontae Johnson—again, at a bargain-bin $5,600 price tag this week in DFS—ranked as my WR13 this week against a reeling Bengals secondary in all PPR leagues.
He’s right behind Garrett Wilson ($6,900), Chris Godwin ($6,800), and Chris Olave ($6,500) for me. I have him just ahead of names like Davante Adams ($7,400), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,400), and Mike Evans ($7,000).
Season-long, I’ve got Johnson as my WR21 going forward. I’m hedging a bit, there. I’m concerned that the Dalton shine will dull just enough—and, frankly, that some receivers I have ranked behind DJ in Week 4 turn their seasons around—such that Johnson’s ultimate ceiling may be one of a low-end WR2. I’d really love it if we saw another Carolina wideout (like rookie Xavier Legette ($4,800), about whom my colleague and fellow DKN analyst Alex Hunter wrote here), emerge to force defensive personnel away from Johnson, sometimes.
That said, I’m trying to trade for him everywhere I can. I’m not sure his value will get much lower.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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