Coming off their second straight Super Bowl victory, the Chiefs have begun this season with a perfect 3-0 record, but superstar tight end Travis Kelce, surprisingly, hasn’t been a big part of his team’s success. Through the first three weeks, the tight end has only caught eight passes for 69 yards and no touchdowns.
What’s going on here?
The concerning stat
From a fantasy perspective, Kelce ranks 33rd in FPTS per game and 36th in FPTS per snap among 57 qualifying tight ends. This is obviously very concerning for the veteran, who has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in seven of his past eight seasons.
At its foundations, the primary problem has been his massive decrease in targets. After leading Kansas City with a 22.7% target share last season, Kelce has only handled 14.3% target share this season, which is easily the lowest of his career.
Kelce is still on the field a ton—he has logged 85.7% of the snaps —but Rashee Rice’s emergence has resulted in Kelce taking a major backseat in this offense. Rice owns a massive 34.5% target share this season—which ranks fourth in the NFL among skill players—and with the wideout producing 24/288/2 line through the first three weeks, Rice should remain Patrick Mahomes’ main weapon for the rest of the season.
Fantasy outlook
Kelce is likely to still have some big games here and there, but his days of being one of the top-three fantasy tight ends in the league seem to be behind the 34-year-old. Furthermore, giving Kelce a light workload during the regular season to preserve him for the playoffs makes a ton of sense for the Chiefs. They are, after all, looking to become only the second team in the history of the NFL to win three Super Bowls in a row.
For fantasy players who own Kelce, putting him on the trade block right now to see what type of return you can get based on his name value is a smart strategy that could really pay off. Honestly, there are absolutely many casual NFL fans and fantasy sports gamers who still believe Kelce is a fantasy superstar.
Despite the tight end’s significant decline, the Chiefs still carry the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +450 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Really, this is a testament to Rashee Rice’s impressive play and most importantly, Mahomes’ greatness.
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