After starting the season on a high note by posting 27.1 FPTS vs. the Texans, Richardson has hit a wall. He’s scored 12.9 FPTS vs. the Packers and then 7.1 FPTS vs. the Bears. However, these past two quiet performances were mostly products of tough matchups. Facing the Packers at Lambeau Field for his first time in his career was an obvious challenge, and the Chicago defense Richardson went against in Week 3 has been impressive this season, as the eighth highest graded defense on PFF. Richardson draws another ugly matchup in Week 4 against the Steelers, who are the second highest graded defense on PFF, so he likely will struggle again.
However, things get much easier for Richardson after Week 4. First, he draws back-to-back excellent matchups vs. the Jaguars and Titans. Then for the rest of the season, he only has three matchups against top-10 defenses in terms of PFF grade. On top of the appealing remaining schedule, Richardson is due for some major positive regression.
Before these last two duds, the dual threat quarterback had recorded at least 21 FPTS in every game he started and completed. Overall, Richardson is generating 0.65 FPTS per dropback over the last two seasons, which ranks third in the NFL, only trailing Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
While Richardson has thrown six picks to only three touchdowns this season, he is still averaging a strong 8.0 yards per pass – which ranks seventh among quarterbacks. His passing efficiency should only improve with another weapon in Josh Downs (ankle) back and healthy for the Colts. Richardson’s willingness to run also remains high, with him ranking sixth in carries per game (6.0) and fifth in redzone rushes (six) among quarterbacks this season.
All in all, Richardson is going to get back on track soon and we should be buying low on him eventually, but not yet. His stock is low right now, but it’s going to drop even further after meeting an elite Steelers defense this weekend. Another quiet outing for Richardson is inevitable against T.J. Watt and company, and Richardson owners should be ready to cut ties with the quarterback for a very low cost next week.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
