We have a MNF doubleheader to round out Week 3, as the Jaguars visit the Bills and the Commanders go to the Bengals.
In a season that’s seen a historic amount of upsets through the first three weeks, I do actually lean to the Bengals as a big home favorite on MNF. Sitting at 0-2, Cincy is in a desperation spot, much like the Ravens were on Sunday. Baltimore took it to the Cowboys on the road, and the Bengals are in a cushy spot, hosting Washington. I might look to involve the Bengals in a teaser or a moneyline parlay, but am looking for a piece to put them with. A parlay of the two MNF favorites will be popular, which is always dangerous.
I’m going to a player prop on the Cincinnati side as my best bet for Monday evening on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dive in.
Zack Moss OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
1-unit
On the surface, nothing special really pops out about Moss so far this season. If I take you back to your fantasy draft before the season, Moss and Chase Brown were being selected in similar rounds, thought to be sharing the backfield this season. Through two games, the numbers for Moss haven’t been too impressive, averaging just 10.5 carrier for 39 rushing yards per game.
However, a deeper dive shows that the RB1 role for Cincy absolutely belongs to Moss, and this should be a matchup he can breakout in.
Moss went for a 9-44-1 line in the Week 1 upset by the Patriots, but New England has been a top-five rush defense through three games. The Pats are allowing just 83 yards per game on the ground, and that includes giving up 133 to the Jets in Thursday’s blowout. The game script also worked against Moss, as the Bengals were chasing points the entire game. Nonetheless, he still averaged just shy of five yards per carry, and found the end zone.
The performance against the Chiefs can’t be spun into a positive, rushing for 34 yards on 12 carries. It was a tough road matchup against an above average run defense, but Moss just wound up having a pretty poor game. That said, the Bengals have proven to us that this is far from a timeshare in the backfield. Through two games, Moss has out-snapped Brown 84-30 and out-carried him 21-7. Moss is getting roughly 75% of the plays and backfield touches. In fact, while Moss didn’t play well last week, with the Bengals leading in Kansas City, Moss actually saw even more of the snaps (80%), with Brown (20%) playing less in obvious run situations.
Week 3 provides a strong matchup for Moss, as the Bengals are larger than a touchdown home favorite over Washington. It’s a desperation spot, so I do think Cincy seizes the moment here with the season on the line. Washington ranks dead average against the run so far this season, giving up just over 120 yards per game. But the Commanders have also faced some pretty weak backfield competition through two games.
Moss have proven to be a capable workhorse back during his time with the Colts. Last season, he began the year by topping 51.5 rushing yards in seven of his first 10 games, while Jonathan Taylor was in and out of the lineup with injuries. And we know Cincy knows how to properly feature a back in this offense, as Joe Mixon topped this mark 11 times in this offense last season.
Look for Moss to get on track in a Cincinnati home victory. If you are looking to use a Same Game Parlay boost, going to an alternate rushing line for Moss, with an anytime Moss TD and Bengals moneyline would be my look.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
