There’s obviously a ton of caveats when it comes to the value of a quarterback in fantasy football. How big is your league? Does it have a superflex? Is it season-long or dynasty? These are not questions I can answer for you, but know that the following assessment of Caleb Williams is in the vein of a standard 12-team league where only one QB is necessary each week. Deal? Deal.
Let’s be frank. It has been a tough and underwhelming start to the professional career of Williams. The first-overall pick is on the heels of his best performance in a Bears’ uniform, throwing for 363 yards and a two touchdowns in a Week 3 loss to the Colts, but much of that production came late in the fourth quarter with the Bears down multiple scores. I won’t go so far as to call it “garbage” time, yet it was certainly a factor in the game script worth noting. Also worth a mention? The fact that Williams dropped back 56 times against Indianapolis — the most of any quarterback on Sunday. That’s not exactly a level of volume that feels sustainable on a week-to-week basis. Neither is picking up 45 yards on plays like this:
The complexity of this situation is clear. Williams’ skill level is off the charts. There’s a reason he was viewed as a generational quarterback prospect coming out of USC. Crucially, he profiles as a dual-threat option, something that has become almost a requirement for any elite QB in fantasy football. That was apparent in his time in college, where he racked up 27 rushing touchdowns over three seasons, and it’s been apparent in his time with the Bears, as he’s sitting just outside the top 10 at his position in rushing attempts (11) and rushing yards (67). However, even with that scrambling floor, Williams has not stacked up well as a fantasy asset.
Among the 35 quarterbacks who have taken at least 25% of their team’s snaps this season, Williams ranks 33rd in fantasy points earned per drop back (0.26). The two pivots who trail the rookie? Bryce Young, who was benched heading into Week 2, and Skylar Thompson, who is only getting snaps because of an injury to Tua Tagovailoa. The grouping of names directly above Williams don’t exactly inspire confidence, either. It’s Deshaun Watson (0.33), Bo Nix (0.33) and Jacoby Brissett (0.27).
If you’re an optimist and still want to believe in Williams’ ability, now would be the time to hold. The Bears’ schedule is relatively soft over the next few weeks, all beginning with a matchup against the Rams this coming Sunday. Los Angeles currently ranks dead-last in the NFL in yards allowed per opponent passing attempt (9.4). The Cardinals, Panthers and Commanders also sit near the bottom of that metric and Chicago will play all three before the end of Week 9.
After that, things get dicey. The Bears close the season with all six of their divisional contests, plus games versus the Patriots, 49ers and Seahawks. As we stand here in late September, it’s hard to imagine trusting Williams in any of those matchups, especially in the fantasy football playoffs.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
