When the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs enter Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday night, the Falcons know they’ll have their hands full. DraftKings Sportsbook has the total set at 46.5 points. In order to upset KC, Atlanta will need to score the ball.
The big question for the Dirty Birds is who will get the ball? While running back Bijan Robinson is sure to handle a heavy workload, figuring out which pass-catcher quarterback Kirk Cousins will look to isn’t as clear. Names like Darnell Mooney and Tyler Allgeier are threats to steal a TD, but it ultimately comes down to former first-round picks Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Pitts, once considered the best tight-end prospect ever, has had an up-and-down career since entering the NFL in 2021. Even though he’s now playing next to a Pro-Bowler at QB, it’s tough to trust Pitts given his failure to produce in recent seasons. Things might change in Week 3.
While the results haven’t exactly been there through two games (6 catches, 46 yards) there’s reason for hope. Throughout his career, Cousins has been fond of throwing to his tight ends. Most recently, T.J. Hockenson was an elite option at the position in Minnesota. Plays like Pitts’ corner endzone grab against the Steelers in Week 1 could offer up a blueprint of things to come.
On the other side, Kansas City has given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this year. On opening night, Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely went for 111 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Against Cincinnati last weekend, Mike Gesicki hauled in seven catches for 91 yards.
In a game that should demand plenty of passes, this is a dream matchup for Pitts. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense plays man coverage on a third of its plays (10th highest rate in the NFL). It’s hard to imagine any defense, even a good one like Kansas City, has a capable one-on-one matchup for a massive 6’6″ target. In addition, the Chiefs have generated the second-lowest percentage of quarterback pressures this season; all three of Cousins’ touchdowns this season have come when he’s had a clean pocket.
I get it, trusting Kyle Pitts isn’t easy. He’s probably burned everyone at some point. That doesn’t allow us to dismiss value. With +190 anytime touchdown odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, this spot is too good to ignore.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is barmy) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
