Uncommon foes meet on Monday night when the AFC North Bengals host the NFC East Commanders. Although Cincinnati is the heavy favorite (favored by seven points on DraftKings Sportsbook) there’s still some potential value on Washington’s sideline.
It’s hard to imagine now, but Austin Ekeler was a consensus elite running back just 14 months ago. A move away from Los Angeles following an injury-plagued 2023 season has brought the 29-year old to Washington. He now serves as one half of a potent running back committee with Brian Robinson Jr, which is good for the Commanders, but not for bettors.
So does it make sense to fade Ekeler, the aging member of a timeshare? Not necessarily.
The Bengals have been kind to running backs. In their first two games, they have allowed the second-highest rush percentage over expected (NFL’s Next Gen Stats) to opposing offenses. On paper, that favors the more traditional back in Robinson Jr. However, it’s Ekeler that stands to benefit the most.
Should Joe Burrow and company get off to a hot start, Washington will be forced to throw the ball with rookie QB Jaylen Daniels. Still, it would be foolish to give up on running the ball entirely given the Bengals can be beaten there. Keeping Ekeler on the field gives Daniels a safety blanket that can also tote the rock in hurry-up situations.
The former Charger hasn’t done much on the ground so far (10 carries for 48 yards), but he has brought in seven catches. In Week 1, he caught three passes in the second half of an eventual 17-point loss. A similar gameplan could be in store should the Bengals stake an early lead. Daniels has the lowest adjusted yards per attempt (4.6 AY/A) in the NFL, so expect Ekeler to serve as the rookie’s safety blanket.
Volume is king in football. There are plenty of reasons for Ekeler concern going forward, but put that on hold for one night. A narrow loss to the Chiefs last week has woken up a doormant Cincinnati offense. If the Commanders have any hope of keeping up, they’ll need to keep pass-first personnel on the field.
You can currently bet on an Austin Ekeler anytime touchdown for +350 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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