Factors beyond his control have seemingly neutralized the league’s most dangerous weapon. Tua Tagovailoa is out indefinitely recovering from another concussion, drastically changing Tyreek Hill’s situation.
The reigning receiving yards leader has blossomed into a statistical marvel in Mike McDaniel’s West Coast Offense. The scheme revolves around speed, timing, and accuracy, which helps Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside and Tagovailoa as the signal caller. With the latter out of the picture, the equation fails unless the replacing variable, Skylar Thompson, is sufficient. Unfortunately for Hill fantasy owners and Dolphins’ fans alike, this offensive output is about to take a nosedive.
Thompson had a tumultuous six years at Kansas State, where he flashed signs of being a talented duel-threat playmaker but struggled to stay healthy. He went in the seventh round of the 2022 draft, earned a roster spot, and has bounced around between Miami’s QB2 and QB3 ever since. Most fans only know the 27-year-old for going into Orchard Park and taking the Bills to the brink in a 2022 Wild Card Game. On the surface, that sounds promising, but it’s also not really true.
The Dolphins defense forced three takeaways in that contest, including returning a Josh Allen fumble for a touchdown. Thompson was far from special, tossing two interceptions and finishing with a 44.7 QB Rating. He only led one scoring drive of 40 yards or more, and his erratic accuracy has been the story of his brief NFL career.
The team will still create designed touches for Hill, but his volume will decrease across the board. His down-the-field action will see the most notable decline, as Thompson’s arm strength is below average at best. Hill has a nose for the endzone, but his reduced opportunity makes that point irrelevant.
There’s renewed optimism that Tagovailoa will be able to come back this season, but with his injury history, who knows how long that will last? If you’re in a good position with Hill on your roster, keeping him around and selling as soon as Tagovailoa returns to action could be worth the gamble. If your roster is thin, don’t waste any time and shop the All-Pro immediately. I only recommend acquiring his services if your team has an embarrassment of riches at running back, and you could use an extra pass catcher.
I currently view Hill as a mid-tier WR2 with significant upside.
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