Week 3 of the NFL season is here, and what a ride it’s been thus far. Week 3 should only get even better, with the largest spread on DraftKings Sportsbook only sitting at 7.5 points. We now have two weeks of data to use and help us craft the best player prop bets for this weekend’s action. We have 13 games on Sunday, followed by a double-header on Monday to look forward to. With all that being said, it’s time to get down to the nitty-gritty. Below are my favorite prop bets for Week 3.
OVER Picks
WR Nico Collins Over 73.5 Rec Yds (-120)
As I mentioned in my Week 3 QB/WR Stacks article, Collins quietly leads the league in receiving right now, and by a solid margin. Despite only being tied 7th in targets (18) he leads the rest of the field by 52 yards. C.J. Stroud has been feeding Collins the ball, targeting him at least eight times in each game. I think Collins will clear this total easily, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t go over 100 yards for the third consecutive week. He will be matched up against a Vikings secondary that is currently 25th in the league, giving up 231.5 yards per game in the air.
Collins has established himself as the clear number-one receiver in an elite room, and I expect his strong form to continue on Sunday. Give me every over on Collins I can get on Sunday, and why not toss in an Anytime Touchdown bet at +145?
WR Malik Nabers Over 67.5 Rec Yds (-120)
Nabers was much improved in Week 2, and for good reason. He saw an increase in targets from seven in Week 1 to 18 in Week 2. He hauled in 10 of those for 127 yards and a touchdown. With that kind of volume, Nabers should shatter this total, so let’s hope Danny Dimes keeps force-feeding him the rock. Nabers is currently tied for second in the league in targets through the first two weeks, and I expect that trend to continue. The Giants don’t exactly have a plethora of offensive talent, so I believe this offense will continue to run through Nabers.
As for the matchup, the scary Browns secondary of 2023 seems to have taken a step backward in 2024. They are currently 13th in the league in passing yards conceded, but last year they finished second in that statistic. They’re still no scrubs on the backend, but I think Nabers could cause them some serious problems on Sunday.
QB Derek Carr Over 1.5 Pass TD’s (-110)
Derek Carr and the Saints have been arguably the biggest surprise of the 2024 NFL season so far. The Saints are balling, have a 2-0 record and lead the league in scoring offense. They also lead the league in scoring differential, Derek Carr leads the league in QBR and is tied for the most passing touchdowns with five. You get the point. The Saints are on fire, and next up they face a Philadelphia Eagles team that has struggled on defense.
The Eagles are currently 28th in the league in passing defense, which is great news for Carr and the Saints. Here’s where it gets better. The Eagles’ defense is giving up an average of 2.0 passing touchdowns per game, which is tied for 28th in the league. Carr has thrown for two touchdowns in each of his first two games, and I expect him to continue that streak with a favorable matchup on Sunday.
UNDER Picks
QB Andy Dalton Under 211.5 Passing Yds (-115)
This total seems a little too high for Dalton, who may still have some gas left in the tank. The problem is, he won’t be working with much help on Sunday on a Panthers team that has very little firepower. Dalton has watched Bryce Young get all the reps throughout the summer and first two weeks of the season, and suddenly the veteran is going to throw for 200+ yards this weekend? I don’t think so.
The Raiders defense has been solid against the pass so far this year, giving up an average of 186 yards per game, which is 15th in the league. The only way I see Dalton hitting the over on this total is if he goes full gunslinger mode as he did in his most recent start in 2023, where he threw for 361 yards while throwing the ball 58 times in a loss to the Seahawks. I expect Dalton to struggle with little weapons around him and a poor offensive line. I think the Red Rifle will be sitfled on Sunday.
QB Caleb Williams Under 213.5 Pass Yds (-115)
You can consider me off the Caleb Williams hype train. Although he showed flashes of greatness in the preseason, it’s been tough sledding for Williams and the Bears offense to start the season. He has yet to throw a touchdown pass, yet to throw 175 yards in a game and his 53.0 passer rating is only better than Bo Nix (51.0) and Bryce Young (benched; 44.1).
That’s how bad it’s been for Williams, and I certainly don’t see him going over this very generous total against a secondary that is not as such. The Colts are currently a top-8 passing defense, only allowing 163 yards in the air per game. Williams should have his hands full on the road against a good passing defense. I would be rather shocked if he went for 200 or more after what we’ve seen from him and this offense as a whole through two weeks.
TE Kyle Pitts Under 39.5 Rec Yds (-115)
The tight-end position as a whole has not contributed much to the passing game this season. Brock Bowers leads all tight ends in yards with 156, but that is only good enough for 13th in the NFL. In fact, there are only five tight ends with 100 combined receiving yards through two games.
Kyle Pitts is one of those struggling tight ends, and he’s also not getting the ball thrown his way. He’s caught six of seven targets so far this season, for a combined 46 yards. In Week 1, he had three catches for 26 yards and he followed that up on Monday Night Football with three more catches for 20 yards. He is currently the 5th most targeted player on a Falcons offense, which is currently 20th in passing yards per game. Pitts was due for a breakout season this year, but it feels like the opposite is unfolding.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
