There are some great games on the board for Week 4 of the college football season. Below are some of my favorite bets for Saturday’s games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Saturday Slate
You can read my favorite player props for the weekend here. What I’ve listed in this column are my favorite sides and totals for Saturday’s games.
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma u57.5
The Volunteers have been amazing to start the season and a lot of the hype is around phenom freshman QB Nico Iamaleava. However, it is the Tennessee defense that could take this team to the next level. DE James Pierce Jr. is one of the best players in all of college football, and the talent on that side of the ball could be what pushes this Tennessee team ahead of where Tennessee has been the past few seasons.
Oklahoma also has a very good defense. They are a top-ten run defense in the country and well-coached across the board. This will be Nico Iamaleava’s first SEC start and his first road start, so Oklahoma should be able to throw some things at him that he hasn’t seen before. Tennessee could turn to the run game to make things easier on their young quarterback but Oklahoma is a really tough team to run the ball against.
There could be a long feeling-out period at the beginning of this game as both teams evaluate their best way to attack their opponent. Both defenses have some big edges against the opposing offenses and this game could be much lower-scoring than people think. For those reasons, I am going with the under 57.5 in this matchup.
USC -4.5 vs. Michigan
The defending national champions are now significant home underdogs for the second time this season after losing 31-12 to Texas a couple of weeks ago. Michigan decided to make a change at quarterback this season and start Alex Orji. Orji has no real passing threat and is likely to run a heavy RPO and zone-read offense. Michigan teams in the past could run an offense like this and just let their offensive line dominate, but this Michigan offensive line is not up to par with what they’ve had the past couple of years.
USC’s defense has also improved significantly from last season. They are top-60 in the country EPA/rush allowed which may not seem great but they were one of the worst defenses in the country last season. As just an average defense, they should be fine because they will be able to sell out to stop the run because of the lack of a passing threat that Michigan carries. The USC offense also looks great and QB Miller Moss should be able to pick apart the Michigan secondary just like Quinn Ewers did a couple of weeks ago.
I had no problem betting Texas in this same spot a couple of weeks ago, and I am rolling with USC in this game. This defense is really improved and should hold up fine against a weak Michigan offense. The USC offense is also as good as Lincoln Riley has had in a long time and they have tons of weapons for Michigan to have to worry about. USC could win this game big just like Texas did a couple of weeks ago.
Kansas +2.5 vs. West Virginia
It has been a rough start to the season for Kansas as they sit at 1-2 after losing to UNLV last week. However, this is a good spot for them to bounce back against a West Virginia team that has also had a tough start to the season. West Virginia ranks 129th in the nation in EPA/pass allowed, making them one of the worst passing defenses in the country. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels has faced some tough opponents so far this season but this is a really favorable matchup for him to show what he can do.
Defensively, Kansas has actually been really solid, ranking 26th in defensive success rate. West Virginia has become entirely one-dimensional as an offense as they rank 108th in EPA/pass but 25th in EPA/rush. They do have a good rushing attack including their QB Garrett Greene, but with such a one-dimensional approach, they have become easy to defend from a scheme perspective. Kansas has the better-coached team, the better quarterback and the better defense.
All of those factors should get them the win in this spot.
Clemson TT u31.5 vs. NC State
NC State was demolished by Tennessee a couple of weeks ago and that has brought their public perception way down. Their defense wasn’t great against Tennessee but it was really the offense that killed the Wolfpack in that game. The game was 10-3 with less than four minutes left in the first half and NC State had the ball in the Tennessee red zone with a chance to tie the game just before halftime. However, QB Grayson McCall threw a terrible pick-six and then things got ugly as NC State tried to get back in the game in the second half.
Grayson McCall is injured and will miss this game, but it was likely that NC State was going to make a quarterback change regardless of the injury. CJ Bailey gives them a whole new look on offense including a better running threat. It could take Clemson’s defense some time to adjust to the new look of the NC State offense which gives them a bit of a leg up in terms of keeping possession.
NC State is one of the best-coached teams in the country, and they have traditionally played Clemson very tight, beating them outright in two of their past three meetings. Clemson’s team total is really high because of how good they looked against Appalachian State and how bad NC State looked against Tennessee.
Well, on Thursday night, Appalachian State gave up 48 points to South Alabama so that performance looks much less special now. Also, as I explained the NC State performance was not as bad as it seemed and things just got a bit out of hand late in the game. This should be a much more focused effort from NC State and I like them to keep Clemson under their team total of 31.5.
Indiana -28.5 vs. Charlotte
Indiana is flying high to start the season as they sit at 3-0 with a big win over UCLA last week. Curt Cignetti’s team which he mostly brought over from JMU has hit the ground running and transfer QB Kurtis Rourke threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in the win over UCLA. In fact, Indiana has the best passing offense in the nation so far this season when it comes to EPA. Their defense has also looked great, ranking 20th in EPA/play.
Charlotte has one of the least-talented rosters in the country. They were down 20-6 entering the fourth quarter against an FCS team last week before pulling off a dramatic comeback to win by one point. Charlotte’s offense ranks 119th in the nation in EPA/rush and 121st in EPA/pass. Indiana should completely shut down what they want to do on offense. Also, Curt Cignetti already proved he would run up the score late when he scored a last-minute touchdown to cover a big spread against FIU in Week 1. This Indiana team is the real deal and should dominate again this week.
South Florida +17 vs. Miami
This Miami team is awesome but their schedule hasn’t been very tough to start the season. They had a big game against Florida to open their schedule but that win looks less impressive as time passes with how bad Florida has been. Miami has the most talented roster in the ACC and the Heisman frontrunner at quarterback but this could be a sleepy spot for them. They play Virginia Tech on Friday night next week to begin their conference schedule and could be overlooking South Florida in this game.
Miami’s offense is awesome but South Florida showed they can hang around against elite teams when they played Alabama both this season and last season. Alabama led just 14-13 entering the fourth quarter before pulling away late this season and last season South Florida almost upset the Tide with a final score of 17-3. South Florida QB Byrum Brown and RB Nay’Quan Wright combine for an awesome rushing attack that ranks 29th in the country in EPA/rush. They could hold the ball for some long sustained drives and hang in with Miami from start to finish.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
