The 2-0 Chiefs head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons after their big Week 2 win against the Eagles. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons o/u 46.5
Chiefs Team Breakdown
The Chiefs are 2-0 heading into this game but neither win has been entirely convincing. Granted, both wins were against good teams so it is nothing to scoff at, but they were out-gained by both the Bengals and Ravens. The Ravens were just a toe away from having a two-point conversion attempt to win, and the Bengals were a questionable pass interference call away from winning. The Chiefs seem to have some issues, especially on offense.
The Chiefs were relying on Hollywood Brown to be a 1-2 punch with Rashee Rice but Brown might end up not even playing a snap for the Chiefs this season. That allows a team like the Falcons to focus all of their energy on Rashee Rice with their top corner, AJ Terrell Jr. The Chiefs will also be without their dominant running back, Isiah Pacheco, for the next couple of weeks. Travis Kelce is not putting up the same level of production so far this season either. All of these factors make the Chiefs much easier to defend despite fielding the best quarterback in football.
The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t looked great so far either. They rank 24th in EPA/play allowed through two games. They have particularly struggled against the rush where they are 29th in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush. That is bad news against the two-pronged attack of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
Falcons Team Breakdown
The Falcons struggled offensively in their first game against the Steelers but that Steelers defense is one of the best in the league. It was also clear that Kirk Cousins was rusty after not playing for so long but in the second half against the Eagles, he really started to look more like his old self and led his team to a win. The Falcons have a lot of offensive weapons and if Cousins can play at a high level again, this offense could be dangerous. Overall, the Falcons’ offense is 11th in success rate –– even better than the Chiefs who rank 15th.
Defensively, the Falcons have been elite at preventing touchdowns. They have only allowed touchdowns on 28.57% of opponent red zone trips, the 5th best mark in the league. That is a trademark of a good Raheem Morris defense as his Rams defense led the NFL in that statistic in 2022. That is a good matchup against a Chiefs offense that has struggled to get in the end zone. They have only scored touchdowns on 40% of their red zone trips, the 20th-best rate in the league.
Pick and Prediction
The Chiefs are an unconvincing 2-0 while the Falcons should be carrying some really positive momentum into this game after their comeback win. The Falcons’ defense matches up well with the Chiefs and their offensive injuries, the Falcons should be able to keep them out of the end zone pretty efficiently. On offense, the Falcons should be able to use their stable of weapons to good effect against a Chiefs defense that has been susceptible so far this season.
Mahomes is just 38-43-2 ATS (47%) when a favorite of more than a field goal. Kirk Cousins will enjoy being in that underdog role again this week after winning outright as an underdog in Week 2 against the Eagles. The Falcons’ defense is underrated and should be able to slow down the Chiefs’ offense. Kirk Cousins also showed what he can do against a prevent defense last week so he is a good bet to get points on the board if the Falcons are down two scores late and need to score to get within the number.
Best Bet: Falcons +3.5
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