Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each different position and highlighting some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full Contest Sims on the site.
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QB Edge Distributions
When it comes to QBs, we don’t usually see too much heavy ownership, and this week is no exception to that. The highest projected ownership at time of writing is on Geno Smith at 13.06%, with only Kyler Murray above 10% projected ownership below him. That being said, we still have a lot of interesting observations to be made from the contest sims.
The highest positive edges found in this set of simulations go to Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith at 8.84% and 8.04%. Hurts specifically looks like an awesome play in all formats as his exposure in winning simulations is nearly 2x his projected ownership. The other main positive edges here are Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson.
When we look at negative edges for QBs (AKA options you should likely be wary of) we find Jared Goff and Kyler Murray. Murray is the one that sticks out here, as he projects for the second highest ownership on the slate and was in just 7.40% of winning simulations from this set. It’s worth saying though that a negative edge of 3.48% is pretty easy to balance out with edges found at other positions, so as long as you aren’t putting together a lineup chock full of bad plays he is still going to be fine in most formats.
RB Edge Distributions
Above you’ll find the top 10 RBs in positive edge offered based on this set of contest simulations. Towards the top of the list is Jordan Mason, who is projected for 24.52% ownership but is in a whopping 38.00% of winning simulations. This is a really important concept: Even though a player is highly owned they can still be undervalued, and that’s what we have with Mason. Granted, I think his ownership is going to rise over the next couple of days, but any ownership on him up to about 40% owned is going to be justified.
Joining Mason we have Aaron Jones, Cam Akers, and Tony Pollard with relatively significant positive edges offered. Aaron Jones specifically leads the RBs in positive edge offered with a 21.60% win rate and a projected ownership of just 7.80%, giving him a +13.80% edge. Any of these guys are going to be able to cancel out negative edges at a handful of the other positions outside of TE (we will get to that in a few).
WR Edge Distributions
Here are the top 10 positive edges offered by WRs from this set of simulations, lead by Rashid Shaheed with a 28.75% edge over his projected ownership. He shows up in 73.70% of winning simulations, a really healthy amount, and continues to be underpriced for his production on what appears to be the only offense that can beat the two-high safety revolution. He does project for around 15% ownership, so he’s not going to be a secret by any means, but that is still less than half as much ownership as he deserves.
The other two notable edges at the WR position for Week 3 are Brandon Aiyuk and Diontae Johnson. They are undervalued by 13.31% and 7.30% respectively, with Aiyuk garnering a lot of ownership with a projection of 23.58%. With the amount of edge you are gaining on both Shaheed and Aiyuk, you can afford to make some suboptimal decisions around them. Furthermore, pairing either of them with their QB to start a lineup is going to give you added correlation, and in the case of Shaheed even more positive edge over the field.
TE Edge Distributions
When we look at the top-10 positive edges for TEs we can find quite a bit of parity in both name value and salary. The top overall positive edge offered here goes to Dallas Goedert, which is likely a byproduct of Jalen Hurts being the most undervalued QB. Goedert has been generally underwhelming, but his projected ownership is too low at just 3%, while his exposure in winning simulations comes in at 16.50%. Likewise, we usually prefer to pair out TE with our QB for the correlation boost at a lame position, so both the numbers and the intuition come together for this one.
Mark Andrews and Johnny Mundt are the other main positive edges offered with marks of 8.61% and 6.86% and ownership projections in that same 3% range. It’s going to be interesting to see how the field distributes ownership to TEs with Kittle now doubtful, but it’s unlikely that Goedert or Andrews are the ones benefitting in any significant amounts.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
With the current batch of simulations it’s pretty clear how the slate should be approached: PHI and SEA stacks are undervalued while Jordan Mason, even at high ownership, isn’t going to be highly enough owned. Starting your builds with Hurts/Mason/Goedert or Geno/Mason/Smith-Njigba is going to be a great foundation for any format. Likewise, there is a lot of upside in starting lineups with a 49ers stack of Purdy/Aiyuk even with Aiyuk coming in at high ownership because of the added leverage you get over Jordan Mason. You then have a handful of positive values in the mid-range at RB/WR like Rachaad White and Rashid Shaheed who will give your lineups a lot of upside for relatively low costs. The only thing you have to be careful of is eating too much considerably negative edge. You can find the players that fit that bill in the full contest sims over at Paydirt!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.