GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 3.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stacks
Game Stack: Dolphins at Seahawks
Geno Smith ($5,600) – De’Von Achane ($7,000) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,400) – DK Metcalf ($6,300)
The Seahawks are coming into this game having played on the east coast last week, and now face a Dolphins squad who has been off since Thursday Night Football in Week 2. That means Miami’s primary RB and one of the fastest players in the NFL, De’Von Achane, is going to be well-rested and ready for another big workload. Seattle has been an average-to-poor rush defense thus far, allowing 4.7 yards per carry against and may be without top run stuffer Leonard Williams who has only practiced in a limited fashion this week. Achane may not see 29 touches again, but even if Raheem Mostert (questionable) plays, he should still be in line for a huge workload. The Dolphins will be starting backup Skylar Thompson ($5,100) for this week and the foreseeable future.
If Achane does go off, that’s also likely to mean the Seahawks will need Geno Smith to be excellent again—something he has been in both of their first two games. Smith has completed 73% of his passes thus far, and threw for 327 yards and a TD against the Patriots last week in an OT win. He’ll also be up against a Dolphins secondary that has been suspect through two games, ranking 31st in EPA per dropback, and allowing 7.0 yards per attempt.
After Khalil Shakir burned them for five receptions for 54 yards in a blowout Bills win, it would not be shocking to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba go nuts in this spot for the second week in a row. Much like Shakir, he should avoid primary coverage from Jalen Ramsey and work out of the slot against this thinner secondary. From a lineup-building perspective, Smith-Njigba’s salary also helps keep the overall cost of this stack down.
While I mentioned Jalen Ramsey as a potential deterrent already, his presence isn’t necessarily enough to scare me off using DK Metcalf in this spot either, who has a significant size and weight advantage against the Dolphins’ top corner. Metcalf has routinely overcome tough matchups like this throughout his career and OC Ryan Grubb was able to scheme him open for ten catches last week against a tougher corner in Christian Gonzalez.
Overall, both of these defenses have failed to come up with big stops, while both offenses have elite weapons capable of making explosive plays. I’d look for this game to potentially shoot out and provide a lot of big fantasy returns from the stars on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback
Bo Nix ($5,100)
Much like last week, when I put Daniel Jones (18.32 DKFP in Week 2) in this spot, I’m going with a lower-priced, low-owned option due to the matchup. The Buccaneers have started the season well, but they still profile as somewhat of a classic funnel to the pass defense. They are also in somewhat of a letdown spot after grabbing a big win against the Lions last week. We know the Broncos (3.7 yards per carry) can’t run the ball. That’s unlikely to change this week, as none of their RBs have looked particularly good to start the year.
So far, Nix has had issues getting those big plays downfield to boost his fantasy totals. However, he has dropped back an average of 38.5 times per game thus far, and also has some solid rushing ability (30 yards per game + one rushing TD on the season). Courtland Sutton ($5,400) should be able to find a little more room this week as well against a secondary that has allowed the second-most receptions to WRs, making the Broncos passing game a lower-priced and very low-owned option to consider for big-field GPPs.
Running Back
Top End: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,800)
The Lions threw the ball 55 times last week and after losing 20-16 to Tampa Bay, I doubt that they want a repeat of that performance in Week 3. That should mean extra carries and potentially receptions for Jahmyr Gibbs, who has seen big workloads after a loss for Detroit. Last year, Gibbs took 17 carries in Week 3 after a Week 2 loss to Seattle and also touched the ball 35 times in Week 8 against Las Vegas, which came the week after they were blown out by Baltimore.
The Cardinals’ rush defense has improved this year, but they don’t have a ton of top-end talent and struggled with a speed back in James Cook in Week 1. Cook put up 103 all-purpose yards in that game and could have had one or more scores had his QB not been Josh Allen (who is the best goal-line QB in the game). This game has the largest total on the slate so getting some exposure to it this week is a must. Gibbs has the potential to do a big part of the scoring for the Lions this week in a bounce-back spot for their offense, making him a primary pay-up option for me this week.
Lower End: Chuba Hubbard ($5,200)
I haven’t written about a Panthers player all season but will break the ice with Chuba Hubbard this week. He led the Panthers with 64 yards on ten carries (6.4 yards per carry). Hubbard is easily the Panthers’ best early-down option at RB and will benefit from having Andy Dalton ($4,800) in at QB this week. The Panthers should have more sustained drives.
We’re trying to read the tea leaves a little bit, but with the move to a veteran QB, and with Hubbard up against a poor rush defense, you should see the Panthers try to run the ball as much as possible in this spot. The Raiders have given up 6.1 yards per carry against thus far (second-worst in the league) and allowed a rushing TD to an RB in both of their first two games. It should be a fertile environment for Hubbard who comes in super cheap this week for having such a prime matchup at $5,200.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: DeVonta Smith ($6,900)
I don’t expect Smith to be low-owned this week, but if AJ Brown sits (missed practice Thursday, highly questionable) then I do think he becomes a must-start in your core lineups. As big as the Saints won last week they still allowed plenty of big plays downfield to CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) who could have had an even bigger day had the game not been so out of hand late. The Saints’ top corner Marshawn Lattimore has also been on the injury report with hamstring issues. Any lower leg injury won’t help him keep up with the speedy Smith.
Smith performed well last week without Brown in the lineup, going for 76 yards and a TD (ten targets) against a tougher Atlanta secondary. The Eagles’ third-year receiver may have even more room to operate this week against a weaker pass defense, and with the Eagles’ defense playing so poorly themselves, he may also be in a spot to see exceed the 10 targets he had from last week.
Lower End: Greg Dortch ($4,500)
As mentioned previously, I think taking multiple pieces from the Cardinals-Lions game this week makes sense when building lineups. Dortch wasn’t needed much last week against the Rams; Arizona had LA beaten before the first half even ended. His role projects to be much bigger this week against the Lions. Detroit is not only a better team than LA right now (and is sure to score more than 10 points this week) but they also don’t cover the slot well, having allowed 21 catches over the last two games to slot receivers Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin.
Dortch’s usage may have taken a step back this week, but the matchup suggests he’ll be on the field more and could replicate his 27% target share and 68% route rate from the Cardinals’ Week 1 loss to Buffalo. Either way, at $4,500 he provides a cheap way to get a piece of this Cardinals offense which has produced a lot of big fantasy performances through the first two weeks of the season.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth ($4,000)
Freiermuth has acted like the de facto number two receiver for the Steelers thus far. He’s caught 4 passes in each of his first two games and has a 21% target share, which is elite-level targeting for a TE. With Justin Fields ($5,400) taking a more conservative approach in this Arthur Smith offense (who loves himself some TEs, as long as they are not Kyle Pitts), there are likely some bigger days ahead for Freiermuth, who looks to be in a nice matchup in Week 3 against the Chargers.
Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing TEs thus far on the season and they’ve also held the lead in their two games for a large majority of the action. A close game could potentially force the Steelers into dropping back more this week, If that does happen, Freiermuth would be in position to post a big PPR week, one that his usage stats have been hinting at over his first two games. At just $4,000, he’s far cheaper than the top names at his position but also shouldn’t draw anywhere near the ownership of those bigger-named players given how conservative the Steelers’ offense has been thus far.
Defense/Special Teams
Panthers ($2,400)
The Panthers are far from a good defense (or team) but for big-field GPPs in DFS this week they do make sense as a cheap option. The Raiders have a poor offensive Line, have trouble running the ball, and have allowed a league-high 4.5 sacks per game thus far. I also think the Panthers will benefit from having Andy Dalton under center and force Gardner Minshew ($5,300) into more dropbacks, who has thrown an INT in each of his two starts this season.
Using the Panthers may not look sexy but the added salary here is also important. They did manage two turnovers last week and of all the cheap D/STs on the board (sub-$2,500K) they have the best matchup with Las Vegas. If you’re looking for a super contrarian option this week, plugging your nose and rostering Carolina’s D/ST is likely your best option.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
