Aaron Rodgers and the Jets host the Patriots in a Thursday Night Football rivalry matchup. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jets (-6.5) vs. Patriots o/u 38.5
Jets Team Breakdown
The Jets bounced back from their loss to the 49ers with a solid road win over the Titans. It wasn’t a perfect game for the Jets but the second half looked much closer to the team Jets fans thought they could be this season. Despite a couple of defensive injuries to key players, the defense only allowed seven points in the second half. Aaron Rodgers made some great throws in the second half and the Jets used their full stable of weapons, including Breece Hall and rookie RB Braelon Allen, who combined for three touchdowns.
The Jets do have some concerning injuries on the defensive side of the ball. DE Jermaine Johnson will miss the rest of the season with an Achilles injury sustained against the Titans. LB C.J. Mosley is questionable for Thursday’s game with an injury to his toe as well. CB D.J. Reed could also be a game-time decision on Thursday night with a knee injury that kept him out of the Titans game. These defensive injuries bring an even bigger spotlight on DE Haason Reddick, who is still holding out for a new contract from the Jets. Without Johnson, the Jets might have their hand forced to pay Reddick.
Patriots Team Breakdown
After a huge upset win over the Bengals in Week 1, the Patriots lost a close one in Week 2. New England fell at home to Seattle 23-20 in overtime. For the second straight week, the Patriots ran the ball extremely well and QB Jacoby Brissett played mistake-free football. The overall talent level for the Patriots is not very high, but they will continue to be a tough team to beat every week because they run the ball well and play solid defense. However, in overtime, they didn’t have the offensive firepower to get a touchdown and win the game.
Pick and Prediction
The Patriots are eighth in rush EPA on offense and the Jets are 24th in rush EPA on defense. The Patriots should lean heavily on the ground game to try to sustain long drives and keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands. If the Jets are missing C.J. Mosley in the heart of their defense, it will make it even harder for them to stop the New England rushing attack. However, the Patriots don’t have the wide receiver talent to exploit the Jets’ secondary if they are without D.J. Reed for the second straight week. So, the Jets may decide to sell out to stop the run and force Jacoby Brissett to beat them deep.
On the other side, the Jets are 10th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play. New York struggled to even hold the ball in Week 1 against the 49ers but across two weeks, the offense has been pretty successful when it gets the ball in its hands. Geno Smith was able to hit a couple of deep balls over the top of the Patriots’ defense last week and that is something Rodgers was able to do against the Titans. If the Jets can find one or two explosive plays through the air, it could be the difference in the game.
The Jets should find a way to win this game at home with the superior weapons on offense. However, it is a tough spot on a second straight short week for a banged-up team. This is also expected to be an incredibly low-scoring game. That makes it tough to lay the points with the Jets. However, part of the reason the Jets should have success is their ability to keep teams out of the end zone. Last season, the Jets defense was seventh in the NFL in red-zone scoring percentage and they are eighth in the NFL this season. That means when their opponent gets inside the red zone, they are standing strong and forcing a field-goal attempt or forcing a turnover.
The Patriots should have some success moving the ball on the ground but once they get inside field-goal range, the Jets’ defense should toughen up. The Patriots are 22nd in the NFL in offensive red-zone touchdown percentage. That means they are struggling to find the end zone when they get deep in opponent territory. Patriots kicker Joey Slye has made five field goals through the first two games. The Jets should hold the Patriots to field goals in this game, so I am betting on Slye to make over 1.5 field goals in this game.
Best Bet: Joey Slye o1.5 FGs Made (-105)
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