It’s been a wild couple of weeks to kickoff NFL season, with underdogs barking loud, and the books cleaning up. We’ll look for some strong angles to get going on DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 3. I think we have some solid player props to jump on this week, as well as some other sides and totals that have my interest. Here’s what I’m starting with, but expect additions throughout the weekend.
I did place a bet on a prop for Thursday Night Football between the Patriots and Jets, which you can find here.
LAC at PIT UNDER 36 (-110)
0.75-units
PIT TT UNDER 19.5 (-125)
0.75-units
Couldn’t decide on Pittsburgh’s team total or the under in the full game, so I split the two plays. Extremely low total, but these are two teams that are fixated on playing defense and running the ball. The Chargers are allowing less than a touchdown per game at 6.5 points, while the Steelers are allowing just 8.0 PPG. Yes, we have to factor in the competition — the Raiders, Panthers, Falcons and Broncos, but those four teams are averaging 19.5 PPG in the games they played that weren’t agains the Chargers or Steelers.
Both teams rank right around average in terms of plays per game, but have a strong preference to run the ball — Los Angeles running 60% of the time and Pittsburgh running on over 62% of the plays. That should chew some clock, especially against what has been elite run defense. The Steelers rank fourth in the NFL, allowing 76.5 rushing yards per game, while the Chargers allow just over 80. The Chargers might be able to find a little bit of success through the air, as the Steelers pass defense has only been slightly above average (184 yards per game), but Justin Herbert does come into this game dinged up.
The Chargers have also been elite when it comes to pass defense, allowing just 147 yards per game, ranking sixth. The ability to stop both the run and pass at a high level is why I split the bet on the Pittsburgh team total. The Steelers are averaging just 15.5 points per game. and now face the best defense they’ve seen yet.
CHI at IND: D’Andre Swift OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
1-unit
I put this one out early in the week, knowing it would likely be on the move. It’s up to 55.5 as I write this article on Thursday, but I am fine playing it up to 59.5, and have no problem going for plus-money on ALTs. Swift is off to a bad start to the season, creating a perfect buy-low spot against what has been hands down the worst run defense in the NFL. Click the link to my Tweet for the full analysis from earlier in the week.
DEN at TB: Bo Nix OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1-unit
Nix is off to a very poor start to his career as a passer, but as he did in college, he’s capable of using his legs to get out of trouble. He ran for over 1,600 yards in his college career, and through two NFL games, has topped 19.5 yards in each game. Nix finished with rushing lines of 5-35-1 in Seattle, and then 4-25-0 against a top-5 Pittsburgh run defense.
As roughly a touchdown underdog on the road, the game script sets up here for Denver to be playing from behind. That should mean scrambling opportunities for Nix. Jayden Daniels made his NFL debut against this Tampa team in Week 1, and in a game Washington trailed he wound up carrying 16 times for 88 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This number seems modest for Nix.
CAR at LV: Adam Thielen OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
1-unit
Thielen caught 3-of-4 targets for 49 yards in Week 1, despite a disaster loss in New Orleans. While Bryce Young clearly wasn’t getting the job done, I went to Thielen’s prop last week at 34.5, and he caught just two passes for 20 yards. Thielen was open for big plays, though, which is why the 2023 No. 1 overall pick is now riding the bench.
Andy Dalton will be under center for this one, and that means a massive upgrade to a capable professional quarterback for this Carolina offense. Dalton made just one start for the Panthers last season, and despite a loss at Seattle, he threw for over 360 yards and two touchdowns, putting 27 points on the board. In that game, Thielen set season-highs of 11 receptions (tied two other games) and 145 yards, to go along with a touchdown. I’m not calling for quite that type of game, but bumping Thielen’s yardage prop six yards off the QB upgrade just isn’t enough.
BAL ML (-115) at DAL
1.5-units
The Ravens are in desperation mode after starting the season 0-2, which is exactly where you want to back them. If you think about it, Baltimore hasn’t actually been that bad. Yes, the meltdown at home against the Raiders was absolutely horrible, but prior to that they had given like 110-115 minutes of good football out of 120 minutes. The Ravens went toe-to-toe (literally) with the Chiefs in Kansas City, and then built up a 13-point lead late in the game over the Raiders, No shame in the KC loss, and the team has to have a fire lit under it following the collapse in Week 2.
Sure, the Cowboys might be in a bounce-back spot after getting trounced by the Saints, but there’s also a chance Dallas just isn’t a good team. The Boys gave up 430 yards of offense last week, 190 of which was on the ground. Not the best time to see Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry running at you.
I trust the coaching of Baltimore much more than Dallas, and expect John Harbaugh to treat this like a mist-win game. I wouldn’t argue with a play on Jackson or Henry to go over their rushing props, potentially with some margin. Lamar Jackson is a whopping 31-15 on the road in his career, and I expect him to improve to 32-15 here. It’s a shame Jackson’s never been able to take his team to the Super Bowl, because Lamar owns a 20-3 record against the NFC, winning 20 of the last 21.
PHI at NO +2.5 (-105)
1-unit
NO TT OVER 26.5 (-105)
1-unit
Alvin Kamara OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
1-unit
Rashid Shaheed Long Reception OVER 21.5 Yards (-115)
1-unit
Going with quite a few angles in this one. I thought the line for this game looked off on Monday (prior to the Eagles playing on MNF), and played the Saints as an underdog early. I’d be good with New Orleans up to about -120 on the moneyline in the game.
Sure, it’s a bounce-back spot for the Eagles after a gut wrenching loss to the Falcons on Monday. But Philly is also in a really tough position with this matchup on the road on a short week. Much like my preseason handicap on the Eagles and the under on their win total, I just don’t believe this is a good team. Dating back to last season, the Eagles are 2-7 in their last nine games. Philly’s defense has been pathetic, and the offense is very mistake-prone.
Meanwhile, the Saints have been coasting through the start of the 2024 season. New Orleans is averaging an absurd 45.5 points per game, and have scored on all 14 of Derek Carr’s drives this season (he has sat in garbage time). Obviously, this offense is going to come back down to earth at some point, but the Eagles have shown a weakness to give up big plays on defense, and this offense rips off some massive chunks. We’ll learn more about the Saints on defense this week, but I trust them far more than I do that unit for Philly.
As for the team total, the Eagles have now given up 27 or more points in seven of their last 10 games, and two of the misses were 22 to the Falcons last week, and 26 to a brutal Giants offense last season. I expect plenty of big plays for New Orleans on offense at home, and another big number on the scoreboard.
Kamara has been shredding through two weeks for the Saints. He finished with a 15-83-1 line on the ground against Carolina, and then a 20-115-3 line as a runner in Dallas. As a team, the Saints are averaging 185 rushing yards per game, good for third in the NFL. The Eagles rank just 25th in run defense, giving up just over 157 yards per game. Look for Kamara to be heavily involved and top his rushing prop for a third consecutive week.
Finally, the Shaheed long reception. We’ve seen Shaheed’s receiving prop go up weekly, from 31.5 to 37.5, and now to 49.5. His long reception was 18.5 in the first two games, but the minor adjustment to 21.5 doesn’t make much of a difference. The Saints have been running deep plays to him in each game, with touchdowns of 59 and 70 yards so far, easily cashing his long reception numbers. The Eagles have given up seven passing plays of 21 or more yards through the first two games — four to Green Bay and three to Atlanta. Look for the Saints to hit one of these deep plays.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
