Oklahoma makes its SEC debut against Tennessee in a ranked conference matchup on Saturday. Here is how to bet the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tennessee (-7) at Oklahoma o/u 57.5
Tennessee Team Breakdown
Tennessee is arguably playing better than any team in the country coming into this game. Nico Iamaleava has lived up to the hype through three games but this will be his toughest test yet. Tennessee played against NC State on a neutral field but this will be Iamaleava’s first real road test and his first SEC game. That being said, Tennessee is third in the nation in passing success rate, so there is no reason to doubt that passing attack.
Defensively, the Volunteers are very underrated. They haven’t faced any great offenses yet but they have one of the best individual players in the country: DE James Pearce Jr. They currently rank second in the nation in defensive EPA/rush and that is ideal for this matchup with Oklahoma. Tennessee can also generate a great pass rush led by Pearce and that should be really effective in this matchup against a young quarterback.
Oklahoma Team Breakdown
Oklahoma has survived a couple of close games to start the season but it is sitting at 3-0. This is the first SEC game ever for the Sooners so they should be amped up and have a raucous crowd at their back. However, their offense might not be able to meet the crowd’s expectations. QB Jackson Arnold and the passing attack are 111th in the country in EPA/pass. They have been much more successful running the ball and Arnold showed how effective he can be with his legs last week.
On defense, Oklahoma has been really tough. The Sooners shut down a Tulane offense that ran wild on Kansas State the week prior. However, Tennessee and Nico Iamaleava will be a much tougher test for the Sooners’ defense. Just like the Tennessee defense, they have been especially strong against the rush, ranking ninth in EPA/rush on defense.
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Pick and Prediction
With past versions of these teams, it would be a guaranteed shootout. That is no longer the case with how these teams are built. Particularly at Oklahoma, head coach Brent Venables has built up a really good defense. The Oklahoma defense with its home crowd at its back should throw some adversity at Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava for the first time in his young career.
Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel should lean on the run game where they also have a star in RB Dylan Sampson to make life easier on their young quarterback. If Tennessee does elect to run the ball, they will have to beat an Oklahoma run defense that is top 10 in EPA/rush. It should be difficult for Tennessee to move the ball regardless of its approach on the road against a really solid defense.
Offensively for Oklahoma, QB Jackson Arnold is yet to prove that he can move the ball effectively through the air, which is the way to beat this Tennessee team. Oklahoma wants to run the football and that is really hard to do against this Tennessee front seven. Oklahoma could have a lot of trouble trying to move the ball and at the end of the day, Tennessee has a bit more offensive firepower, which should get it over the line with a win. This game will be more defensive than people think with Tennessee winning in the end, so I am betting on the under and incorporating Tennessee in a moneyline parlay.
Best Bet: Tennessee/Oklahoma u57.5, Tennessee/USC MLP (+104)
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