After the Patriots played spoiler to plenty of survivor pools in the opening week defeating the -345 money line favorite Cincinnati Bengals, there was even more madness in Week 2 of the NFL season. Eight underdogs produced an upset including the Ravens losing as 8.5-point favorites and -455 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, -278 ML), Detroit Lions (-7.5, -375 ML), San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, -218 ML), and Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, -285) were also on the wrong side of the result as notable favorites.
Hopefully, you survived and remain alive in your pools. Here is a look at the top-ranked matchups of the week and the games you want to avoid to put yourself in the best position to survive and advance.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Denver Broncos (-6.5 Spread and -298 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are quickly emerging as one of the NFL’s best stories. The former number-one overall pick has found his footing in Florida and has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL to start the year. Through the opening two games of the season, Mayfield has completed 73.5% of his passes for 474 yards, five passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and one interception.
Tampa Bay enters this matchup with a 2-0 record after comfortably taking down the Washington Commanders in the opening week and are coming off an impressive upset victory over the Detroit Lions. The Buccaneers will face off with an 0-2 Denver Broncos team that has tallied just one offensive touchdown in the first two weeks. Denver’s 13.0 points per game ranks 30th in the league and Bo Nix is tied for the most interceptions in the league (4) without throwing a touchdown at the NFL level yet.
Denver will continue to live and die with the struggles of Bo Nix. There may be brighter days ahead for the Broncos organization but expect this season to be more about evaluation than results. The Buccaneers have a solid floor for what to expect and rank in the top six in both points scored and allowed through the first two weeks. Expect them to build off this and produce their third consecutive victory.
2. Buffalo Bills over Jacksonville Jaguars (-5 Spread and -230 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Buffalo Bills secured an upset victory over the Miami Dolphins on last week’s Thursday Night Football and are 2-0 overall. They will have a rest advantage coming off playing Thursday and will have the extra day with this game being played on Monday night.
The Bills entered the season expecting to be one of the top AFC threats and have looked the part thus far. After outpacing the Arizona Cardinals 34-28 in the opening week, they most recently defeated the AFC East rival Miami Dolphins. Throughout the opening two weeks of the season, the Bills rank 3rd in scoring and 8th in points allowed. While there were some concerns about the production of the wide receivers, this has not slowed the Bills offense yet.
In contrast, it has been a bit of a nightmare start to the season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They enter with a 0-2 record and rank 27th in the NFL in scoring on the season. They have now suffered losses to the Browns and Dolphins in the opening two weeks and Trevor Lawrence has thrown for just one touchdown thus far. There are some real issues to be addressed with Doug Pederson’s management of the team and the play call within the offense. Unfortunately, these are not quick-fix issues. Look for things to get worse down in Jacksonville and the Bills comfortably take care of them in the Monday night matchup.
3. Seattle Seahawks over Miami Dolphins (-4.5 Spread and -298 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Geno Smith is another terrific redemption story at the quarterback position. After leading the team to a 9-8 record last season, Seattle is off to a 2-0 start to the 2024 season. They have not been the most convincing performances for Seattle- as they defeated the Broncos 26-20 in the opening week and narrowly defeated the Patriots 23-20 in overtime last week.
They have another great opportunity this week as they will face off with the Miami Dolphins. While the talent level of Miami is higher than either the Broncos or Patriots, the injury to Tua Tagovailoa changes their entire outlook. Miami will need to find a new identity with Skylar Thompson set to take over at quarterback. Following Tagovailoa’s injury last week, Thompson completed 8 of his 14 passes for 80 yards.
While players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle make it impossible to count the Dolphins out completely, the Seahawks are in a perfect position to strike here. Seattle is a solid team that can win in a variety of ways whereas Miami needs to find how to make up for their offensive production to get a win. Expect Miami to have some growing pains in the first week without Tagovailoa and for Seattle to jump on the opportunity to get their third victory.
4. Las Vegas Raiders over Carolina Panthers (-5.5 Spread and -230 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Las Vegas Raiders are not a team without their flaws, but they have a terrific chance to move to 2-1 this week. Las Vegas is coming off an impressive upset victory over the Ravens which set the bar for the biggest upset of the season. Gardner Minshew is leading the NFL in completions and completion percentage showing the potential to be the type of game-managing quarterback the organization needs. Brock Bowers has emerged as a Rookie of the Year threat and looks to be a dynamic weapon in the offense. Davante Adams also continues to be one of the best pass-catchers in the league and currently ranks 8th in receiving yards.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Carolina Panthers sit. They made the surprising decision to bench Bryce Young just two games into his second NFL season. It will be interesting to see the long-term vision of the franchise for Young, but for the time being, the Panthers will hand the keys to the quarterback position over to Andy Dalton.
The possibility of Dalton bringing a spark to the team dropped it down to fourth on this list. But in all reality, this is an ecosystem that any quarterback would struggle in. The skill position groups are not talented enough and Carolina currently ranks dead last in both points allowed and points scored. Expect the Raiders to carry the momentum of last week and look like the more complete team from start to finish in this matchup.
5. New York Jets over New England Patriots (-6 Spread and -278 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
If you are looking for a stress-free Sunday and want to get your pick out of the way early, the Jets are not a bad option on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers continues to kick off the rust following last year’s Achilles tear. New York is hoping he will be the missing piece to elevate the defense and skill positions to a Super Bowl contender. While the team has not found its full stride yet, the Jets are 1-1 and have a great chance to pick up their second victory.
The New England Patriots also enter with a 1-1 record. They kicked off the season with a shocking upset over the Cincinnati Bengals and then pushed the Seattle Seahawks to overtime last week. While the results have been positive, there are still some significant concerns within this Patriots team. Jacoby Brissett continues to operate as the quarterback but is averaging just 135 passing yards per game. The organization has embraced the running game heavily and leans on Rhamondre Stevenson as the driving force of the offense. While this has been effective through the first two games, don’t expect New England to have an answer if the game script does not go according to plan. The Patriots did not fall behind at any point in the opening game and never trailed by more than four points last week.
If the Jets can get their offense rolling, there will be no answer from the Patriots. The Jets are more talented on both sides of the ball and have more diverse ways in which they can win. While the Patriots have looked far more competent than most expected in the early games, expect this to be the matchup in which they begin coming back to reality.
Games to Avoid:
Detroit Lions (-3) vs Arizona Cardinals (+130)
The Detroit Lions were a popular pick to win the NFC leading into the year and are holding a 1-1 record entering Week 3. However, the Kyler Murray resurgence is something that has me completely staying away from this game. Murray looks as healthy as he has been in quite some time. So far this season he has thrown for 428 yards and four touchdowns while adding 116 rushing yards on the ground. Don’t rule out Arizona being a surprise playoff team this season and stay away from this matchup.
San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs Los Angeles Rams (+270 ML)
This is sure to be a popular survivor pool pick, but I believe this game still has some upset potential. Both these teams are battling injuries as the 49ers will be without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel while the Rams will be without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Both teams also have offensive-minded head coaches who are incredibly creative. While the 49ers come in as a notable favorite, we still have yet to see Brock Purdy be the driving force of production for an offense the way he will be asked to. The Rams are 0-2 and desperate so this one just feels a bit concerning in my eyes.
Tennessee Titans (-2) vs Green Bay Packers (+105 ML)
Despite it looking like he would be set to miss several weeks when the injury first occurred, Jordan Love has his eyes on making his return as soon as possible. The uncertainty of the Packers quarterback makes this a difficult matchup to put a finger on, especially with Malik Willis wanting revenge against his former team. Tennessee is searching for its first win but there has been some disastrous decision-making from quarterback Will Levis. While some will eye this as a game in which you can pull a fast one, I have way too many questions about both teams at this point.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
