We’ve got all 30 MLB teams in action this evening and not a single NFL game in sight. This is baseball’s time to shine and I’ve got all the bets you need on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s slate.
Well, I have two bets. But they’re really well thought out and researched. I hope that’s okay.
New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
Mariners ML (+102)
I swear this analysis isn’t going to devolve into “the Mariners just need this one more.” However, Seattle really does need to win this contest. With a loss last night to begin this series, the Mariners are now three games back of the Twins for the final Wild Card spot in the American League and five games behind the Astros for the division. The margin for error is getting quite slim.
Thankfully, there’s some reasons for optimism on Wednesday. First and foremost, Seattle is 45-31 at home this season — the second-highest winning percentage of any AL club within the split. The Mariners also have Bryce Miller taking the mound and he is the definition of locked in at the moment. Across his last seven starts, Miller owns a 1.55 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and a 29.4% strikeout rate. Miller has surrendered one earned run or fewer in five of those outings. He’s not allowed any earned runs in three of them.
It’s not like Seattle isn’t hitting the ball well, either. Though run production has been a major issue for the Mariners for most of 2024 — and a majority of the last decade — the team’s stats in September are fantastic. Julio Rodriguez is red-hot at the moment and he’s being aided by the likes of Victor Robles and Luke Raley. All told, Seattle possesses the MLB’s top wRC+ in the month of September (135). The Mariners also sit second in OBP (.357) and wOBA (.349). With all these factors working in their favor, it’s a little shocking to see them as underdogs, even in a matchup with the Yankees.
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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
This might be a case of the DraftKings Sportsbook simply not being familiar with Schwellenbach’s game. The rookie RHP has made 18 starts for the Braves this season, yet I want to focus on the last 15. Not only does Schwellenbach sport a lovely 3.27 ERA and 3.15 FIP in this span of 88.0 innings, but he’s also registered a 28.4% strikeout rate. That’s an average of 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings, wfhich is why Schwellenbach’s exceeded this prop in 12 of those 15 outings. The 24-year-old comes into Wednesday’s action with a 97th percentile chase rate (34.9%). These strikeouts aren’t an aberration. Schwellenbach’s just really good with nasty stuff.
Now, let’s talk matchup. The Reds have been in an offensive tailspin since the calendar flipped to September, sitting 28th in ISO (.113) and 23rd in wRC+ (85). In its 15 games this month, Cincinnati is also striking out at a massive 25.8% clip — the seventh-highest mark in baseball. This is clearly a team struggling to put the bat on the ball. Look for Schwellenbach to take full advantage.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
