Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,100) has been near-silent to start the 2024 fantasy football season. Posting seven catches for 52 yards over two games is concerning. More worrisome is his sub-50% catch rate on 15 targets. Then there’s the matter of his questionable tag, though he’ll likely be available for Week 3, per Shane Steichen. With all that in mind, should you start or sit MPJ against the Chicago Bears? Let’s talk about it.
Between the 49.1% completion percentage of Anthony Richardson ($6,700) and Pittman’s reliance on high volume over his last two seasons (141 targets in 2022 & 156 in 2023), there’s not much room for optimism.
This doesn’t mean Pittman is bound to have a bad season. However, fantasy football managers will likely need to adjust to viewing him more like a best-ball receiver, where Pittman runs extremely hot and cold week-to-week. We’ve seen Alec Pierce ($4,800) hit a couple of big weeks, but reliance on big plays and touchdowns is a poor long-term strategy. Receivers that get by on volume (targets and receptions) are the safer choice.
Accommodating Pierce, Downs, Pittman
Such luxuries likely don’t exist with the Indianapolis Colts’ wide receivers. If given a choice between Pittman, Pierce and Josh Downs ($4,700), the play might be Downs, given he’s a little more electric with the ball in his hands after the catch. It also helps that Downs will mostly be playing out of the slot (598 slot snaps last year, third in the NFL). In theory, Richardson should find it easier to connect with Downs in the short to intermediate game.
When Pittman does hit, he’ll certainly have a big week. His 50 unrealized air yards rank 18th in the league, not bad considering his moderate target number. A good number does show some bounce-back potential, but I feel that’ll be negated with the return of Downs.
This offense wants to use the run to set up big throws downfield. But predicting when that will happen and which receiver will benefit with any certainty is a fool’s errand.
Start or Sit Michael Pittman Jr.? Sit.
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