George Pickens ($5,700) has seen great usage this season and has been the Steelers’ clear No.1 receiving option. Through the first two weeks of the season, Pickens has led Pittsburgh with a 27.5% target share, and his aDOT has been at a solid 12.5. However, Pickens only averages 9.2 FPTS per game and ranks fourth among wideouts in FPTS per snap.
The reason for his lack of fantasy success has been that the Steelers are a run-first offense that ranks second-to-last in pass rate over expectation. Justin Fields has only attempted 43 passes this season, and the Steelers likely will continue to rely on their run game this Sunday as 1.5-point favorites over the Chargers on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Additionally, this matchup is very poor for Pickens and the Steelers’ passing attack, with Los Angeles yielding the third-least yards per pass this season.
The Chargers have yet to give up a receiving touchdown to a receiver this season, and their defense is the highest-graded unit on PFF. The Steelers are the fourth highest graded defense on PFF, and this clash between two of the top defenses in the NFL presents the lowest O/U for Week 3 on the DraftKings Sportsbook at an underwhelming 35.5 points.
This isn’t an ideal spot for Pickens to display his great potential, and most fantasy owners likely have better receiver options on their bench to consider for Week 3 outside of very deep leagues. Furthermore, attacking Pickens for under 49.5 receiving yards on the DraftKings Sportsbook is a sharp move in this ugly spot. For the eight times the Steelers have been favored over the last two seasons, Pickens is averaging 32.6 receiving yards per game, and he has only exceeded 49.5 receiving yards twice.
Start or Sit George Pickens? Sit.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
