Be it good or bad, there have been quite a few surprises across the NFL through the season’s first two weeks. Nine teams head into Week 3 winless. Night teams are a perfect 2-0.
Both groups have created opportunities on DraftKings Sportsbook for bettors who are looking to attack season-long NFL win totals. Below, you’ll find information on how the win total over/unders have adjusted ahead of Week 3’s action and how bettors are attacking these plays.
Over/Under Movement
With both the Buccaneers and Saints off to hot starts, they’ve seen their win total over/unders change more than anyone else. Both entered the season with 7.5 win total over/unders, then they each bumped up to 8.5 after Week 1 before jumping all the way up to 10.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
No team has been on the exact opposite end of the spectrum from Tampa Bay and New Orleans and seen a three-win decrease. However, five have seen a two-win decrease on their NFL win totals:
- Ravens — down to 9.5 from 11.5
- Panthers — down to 3.5 from 5.5
- Bengals — down to 9.5 from 11.5
- Rams — down to 6.5 from 8.5
- Giants — down to 4.5 from 6.5
The following teams have the same win total over/under that they did before the start of the season:
- Falcons (9.5)
- Bills (10.5) — BUF’s win total over/under came down to 9.5 after Week 1 but bumped back up to 10.5 after Week 2
- Cowboys (10.5)
- Lions (10.5)
- Eagles (10.5) — PHI’s win total over/under bumped up to 11.5 after Week 1 but came back down to 10.5 after Week 2
- 49ers (11.5)
- Commanders (6.5)
Most Popular Bets
After knocking off the Rams in Week 2, the Cardinals saw their win total over/under increase from 6.5 to 7.5. Following that increase, more bets have been cast on Cardinals over 7.5 wins than any of the other NFL win totals on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Following Arizona in the conversation for most bet on NFL win totals on DraftKings Sportsbook since Week 2 are (in order from second to fifth) Lions over 10.5 wins, Bills over 10.5 wins, Steelers over 9.5 wins, Saints over 10.5 wins.
What Stands Out
Atlanta was one of the few teams who didn’t have plus-money odds to win their division this season. The win on Monday vs. Philadelphia was a nice bounce-back from Week 1’s loss to Pittsburgh.
Even with the Falcons’ 1-1 start while Tampa and New Orleans are 2-0, Atlanta’s win total over/under has not budged. This could be a statement on how Kirk Cousins is going to adjust — both to his new team and with his health — as the season goes on. It could also be a lack of buy-in on either the Buccaneers or Saints (or both).
Either way, it seems the move with these teams right now is to attack an under from this bunch. In both 2023 and 2021, only one division saw two teams finish with 11-plus wins and one team log 10. In 2022, there wasn’t a single division that had that type of winning output.
Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
