We should consider ourselves lucky that Darnell Mooney—still only 26 years old and on just his second NFL team—had such a paltry line (1-15-0) against the Steelers in Week 1. It made it so that his impressive showing of three receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown last week against the Eagles appeared as if it’s not part of a pattern. Just an anomaly. But a pattern it is indeed.
Folks who’re dealing with injuries to CMC, Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon, Isiah Pacheco, you name it!, etc. are likely in need of flex help this week. As I was looking at Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s numbers (they are impressive, and I’ll write about them in short order), I noticed a striking similarity between his air yards metrics and Darnell Mooney’s that’s got me considering Mooney in starting lineups this week and beyond.
Let’s break it down.
Darnell Mooney Week 3 Start/Sit Analysis
There are going to be people who think his 3-88-1 line from last week against the Eagles is a flash-in-the-pan. Just another Mooney game!, they’ll say. I’m not so sure, and am willing to take a shot this week on Mooney against the as my flex against the Chiefs. I think he has more of a shot to be like a Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this offense as opposed to, say, the Darnell Mooney in Bears offenses from years past.
In fact, Mooney and Smith-Njigba are just about pound-for-pound right now as far as air yards go, at 160 and 172 respectively. Volume used to see Mooney’s air yards skyrocket only based on mediocre deep throw opportunities. Not so this year. NFL Next Gen Stats has Mooney’s wide receiver grade at a staggering 111.7 based on his EPA (expected points added) scores through two games.
Mooney, so far in 2024—keep in mind this is as Kirk Cousins is finding his footing and swiping away cobwebs on things like play action and non-shotgun dropbacks—is averaging career highs in yards per route (25.1) and average yards per target (16.0). He’s due for some positive regression, too: Mooney currently has a -15.0 RecYOE (reception yardage over expectation)—well above the league average in that statistic.
With regards to his touchdown potential: Mooney tallied a total of six end zone targets in 2022; he finished the 2023 campaign with six. He has zero so far this season, but something about this growing rapport seems familiar. I think Mooney will lap his career-best EZ target figure in 2024. It smacks a bit of Kirk-Cousins-to-WR3-K.J.-Osborn during Kirko’s vintage Viking days. Defense will shade coverages toward London and Pitts and Bijan Robinson, so Mooney’s free to get an end zone look.
I’m trying to get in on this before we see another impressive receiving line from Mooney this year. As mentioned above, he’s still really young; he finally has a good quarterback. And, during all his years in Chicago, he was a bit of an air yards darling, even though the production never crystallized.
I think Mooney might have just set himself on a path toward career-best season this year with Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. He’ll finish inside the top-36 wide receivers for season-long fantasy. Mooney is a top-30 play for me this week against Kansas City.
Verdict: Start him.
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